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nuchal fold test necessary?

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newly_pregnant - 15 Aug 2007 14:03 GMT
My wife is pregnant (nearly 8 weeks now).

Pregnancy books discuss the nuchal fold test.

It seems like it's mainly for predicting Downs and other genetic disorders.

Since we've made the decision that we won't abort for genetic disorders, is
there any reason to have this test?  (We can't think of any.)

TIA
Ericka Kammerer - 15 Aug 2007 14:17 GMT
> My wife is pregnant (nearly 8 weeks now).
>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> Since we've made the decision that we won't abort for genetic disorders, is
> there any reason to have this test?  (We can't think of any.)

    It is a screening test for Downs Syndrome, which means
that it doesn't diagnose DS.  It simply identifies whether
you are at higher risk and might therefore benefit from more
extensive testing to get a definitive diagnosis.  Therefore,
it is not a useful test if A) you would refuse further testing
(e.g., amnio) or B) if knowledge of a diagnosis of DS (or
knowledge of increased risk of DS) would not change your
decision making.  Obviously, pregnancy termination is the
biggest decision one would confront.  Some people might
want the information in order to make other decisions (making
preparations, change birth location, etc.).  However, if
you would not terminate, the other decisions you would make
would generally be for your personal comfort level.  E.g.,
some people would be reasonable comfortable finding out
about a diagnosis at birth and dealing with whatever issues
at that moment.  Some other people would be eaten alive with
worry and doubt without knowing and would want a definitive
diagnosis ahead of time so they could study and plan and
whatever.  So, some people choose to find out even if they
don't plan to terminate.  (However, statistics suggest that
a significant majority who find out *do* terminate.)
    So, bottom line is that some may make an argument
for why you might want to know even if you wouldn't
terminate, but it's certainly not essential to get a
diagnosis.

Best wishes,
Ericka
alath - 15 Aug 2007 14:39 GMT
"Necessary?" No. Very few things are really "necessary."
Desirable? Useful? Very possibly - even if you know you would not
terminate.

Nuchal fold and nuchal lucency are two different tests. If you are
talking about a test in early pregnancy, you are talking about the
nuchal lucency test. Ideally this should also be combined with a blood
test.

Some possible uses of prenatal screening for people who believe they
would not terminate for fetal anomalies:

1) reassurance - if you are worried about the possibility of karotypic
anomalies, the combined nuchal lucency + blood test is extremely
reliable. If you get a negative result, you can be confident the baby
does not have Down syndrome.

2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic
anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition
incompatible with life outside the womb), some families prefer to plan
a perinatal hospice. Without a diagnosis prior to birth, a baby with a
lethal anomaly will probably wind up spending his or her entire life
being resuscitated by a team of strangers. When families know about a
lethal anomaly prior to birth, they can call off the resuscitation
efforts and plan for peaceful family time instead. If I were a baby
with a lethal fetal anomaly, I would much prefer to spend my 20
minutes or 6 hours of life in my parents' arms.

3) planning early neonatal care - babies with Down syndrome have a
much higher incidence of malformations involving the heart and the
airway. If your baby had one of these conditions, foreknowledge of the
condition would enable potentially life-saving treatment in the
delivery room.

The idea that prenatal diagnosis is a "search and destroy" method with
no purpose other than to terminate anomalous babies is a myth. One of
the leading prenatal diagnosis physicians in the US is also the
president of the association of pro life ob gyns.
newly_pregnant - 15 Aug 2007 15:35 GMT
> "Necessary?" No. Very few things are really "necessary."
> Desirable? Useful? Very possibly - even if you know you would not
[quoted text clipped - 34 lines]
> the leading prenatal diagnosis physicians in the US is also the
> president of the association of pro life ob gyns.

Thanks for the very informative reply.  (That goes for the other responding
poster, as well.)

You wrote, "If you get a negative result, you can be confident the baby does
not have Down syndrome."  That's my impression from reading around (low
false negative rate).

However---and I should emphasize this is only an impression from some
initial skimming of material---isn't the false positive rate fairly high?
I.e., the probability that the baby does not have Downs, given that the test
is positive, is pretty high.

If so, that would lead us to not wanting to get the test in that the
cost/benefit payoff doesn't seem so great.  (Meaning we can live with not
knowing, and the cost of the stress induced by a false positive would
outweigh the benefits of knowing in the case there really was Downs.  Not to
denigrate your points made above, which are well-taken and informative.)
alath - 16 Aug 2007 19:26 GMT
> However---and I should emphasize this is only an impression from some
> initial skimming of material---isn't the false positive rate fairly high?
> I.e., the probability that the baby does not have Downs, given that the test
> is positive, is pretty high.

The combined nuchal lucency and maternal blood test has sensitivity
and specificity both in the high 90's. False positives are quite rare
with this test. The vast majority of women who get these tests have
negative results and normal babies.
betsy - 16 Aug 2007 21:18 GMT
---isn't the false positive rate fairly high?
> > I.e., the probability that the baby does not have Downs, given that the test
> > is positive, is pretty high.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> with this test. The vast majority of women who get these tests have
> negative results and normal babies.

I had this test.  My result is considered positive.  My age related
risk is 1 in 48.  The result I received listed my risk, based on
freeBeta, PAPP-A, nuchal translucency and maternal age as 1 in 43.
So, even though I have a positive result, I still, according to their
numbers I should have a better than 97% chance of having a baby
without Down Syndrome.

In the past, I have only had ultrasounds in emergencies and with 2 of
my 3 children I did not have any ultrasounds.  I avoid the doppler.  I
will not risk an amniocentesis.  Now, I have to decide whether or not
to have a 20 week ultrasound, based on these results and whether to
travel to a city where I could have a high resolution ultrasound.  I'm
not sure that having the nuchal translucency was the right decision
for me.  If the results had been 1 in 5 or 1 in 2, I would have gone
for the high resolution ultrasound, since there would be a higher
chance of the baby needing care after birth that can't be obtained in
local hospitals.  Now,  I'm not sure what to do.

--Betsy
alath - 17 Aug 2007 04:36 GMT
What, for you, is the downside of the specialized ultrasound?

You hinted at the upside - potentially detecting a condition
foreknowledge of which could lead to better treatment and possibly a
better outcome for your baby.

So far, the only downside I'm hearing is having to drive to another
town for the scan. Are there other downsides you're trying to balance
here?
betsy - 17 Aug 2007 15:35 GMT
> What, for you, is the downside of the specialized ultrasound?

The 2 main downsides I see are:

 1)  Whatever the results are, it automatically puts me in a higher
risk catagory.  If I have a local hospital birth, protocols and
expectations are somewhat different for women who have traveled for
the high resolution ultrasound.  I am particularly aware of this right
now because of someone who works in maternity in the local hospital
and was recently lamenting how she had put herself in the high risk
system.  Even though, by late pregnancy, nothing was wrong, her
initial high resolution ultrasound had snowballed into possible risks,
much stress and many ultrasounds throughout the pregnancy that she
didn't feel she could say not to.

 2) We don't really know what the risks of the ultrasound are.  I
know that the only thing we know that is statistically significant is
an increase in left handedness.  But, with that, the increase in left
handedness does tend to signify changes in the brain.

> So far, the only downside I'm hearing is having to drive to another
> town for the scan. Are there other downsides you're trying to balance
> here?

My morning sickness is bad enough that having any more ultrasounds
seems like a major downside to me.  The drive while sick, finding
childcare for a whole day, taking a day off homeschooling etc. do make
the trip seem daunting.

--Betsy
alath - 17 Aug 2007 21:52 GMT
>   1)  Whatever the results are, it automatically puts me in a higher
> risk catagory.  If I have a local hospital birth, protocols and
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> much stress and many ultrasounds throughout the pregnancy that she
> didn't feel she could say not to.

That sounds like a very messed up system. I have never worked in any
system that has dynamics like what you describe. Are you somewhere
other than the US by chance?
betsy - 17 Aug 2007 23:30 GMT
> >   1)  Whatever the results are, it automatically puts me in a higher
> > risk catagory.  If I have a local hospital birth, protocols and
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> system that has dynamics like what you describe. Are you somewhere
> other than the US by chance?

I'm in the US.  I had a prenatal check today and discussed the
ultrasound options with my doctor.  Based on the test results, she
would like me to have a twenty week ultrasound.  She thinks a local
ultrasound should pick up any defects that would require delivering in
a large city.  According to her, the high resolution ultrasound would
be for us, if we want more information.  She also would like me to
have the AFP.  For me, one test is also leading to more tests.

--Betsy
alath - 18 Aug 2007 02:46 GMT
> For me, one test is also leading to more tests.

Really? It seems to me you would have been offered the midtrimester
ultrasound and serum screen even if you had not had the first
trimester screen.
newly_pregnant - 17 Aug 2007 13:44 GMT
>> However---and I should emphasize this is only an impression from some
>> initial skimming of material---isn't the false positive rate fairly high?
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> with this test. The vast majority of women who get these tests have
> negative results and normal babies.

But the statistic I'm looking for (probability that the baby does not have
Downs, given that the test is positive) is _not_ specificity.  (Admittedly,
it's not actually the "false positive rate," which as you say is 1 -
specificity.)  Rather, it's
   1 - positive predictive value
That's not to say that I _know_ this number is high.  Rather, it _could_ be
high even if specificity is high.
Ericka Kammerer - 15 Aug 2007 16:23 GMT
> "Necessary?" No. Very few things are really "necessary."
> Desirable? Useful? Very possibly - even if you know you would not
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> Some possible uses of prenatal screening for people who believe they
> would not terminate for fetal anomalies:

    I do agree with what you're saying in general, but want
to play devil's advocate a bit...

> 1) reassurance - if you are worried about the possibility of karotypic
> anomalies, the combined nuchal lucency + blood test is extremely
> reliable. If you get a negative result, you can be confident the baby
> does not have Down syndrome.

    However, this reassurance is not complete (prenatal
screening won't detect everything, and isn't 100 percent reliable
detecting the things it can detect) and comes at a price (if
you *don't* get a negative result, that affects your experience
of pregnancy as well.  Some people have started looking at
the emotional and psychological consequences of prenatal testing,
and the results are mixed and a bit complicated (and sometimes
counter-intuitive).  Does this mean that one shouldn't test?
Of course not.  But it does mean that testing is not an unalloyed
good.  I think it's worth considering some of the downsides as
well, beyond just the technical false negatives and false
positives.

> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic
> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> with a lethal fetal anomaly, I would much prefer to spend my 20
> minutes or 6 hours of life in my parents' arms.

    Absolutely agreed.  However, I'm not sure that this
particular issue hangs a lot on the nuchal lucency test.  Some
of us nutters aside, most folks have a mid-trimester ultrasound
that probably catches more of this sort of thing than just
about anything else.  That's not to say that the u/s associated
with the nuchal lucency wouldn't give an earlier heads up about
some of these issues, but just that refusing the nuchal lucency
doesn't deprive one of this opportunity.  And, of course,
while some people want to plan based on a diagnosis, it is
also possible to put a plan in place just the same as many
perfectly healthy people have a "living will" to tell caregivers
what they want to happen in the event that something unexpected
happens.

> 3) planning early neonatal care - babies with Down syndrome have a
> much higher incidence of malformations involving the heart and the
> airway. If your baby had one of these conditions, foreknowledge of the
> condition would enable potentially life-saving treatment in the
> delivery room.

    And also with this one, while a positive on the nuchal
lucency screen (or a diagnosis resulting from further testing)
would perhaps make one look more closely, it's probably more
the mid-trimester ultrasound that would detect these malformations
(associated with DS or not) that would form the basis for
making such plans, no?

> The idea that prenatal diagnosis is a "search and destroy" method with
> no purpose other than to terminate anomalous babies is a myth. One of
> the leading prenatal diagnosis physicians in the US is also the
> president of the association of pro life ob gyns.

    Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree
that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy."
I do think, however, that it is worth considering exactly
what one would do with the information (including precisely
the things you describe above) and the potential alternate
sources of information (and their attendant risks and benefits)
in order to make a sensible decision for one's personal
situation.  I also think that it is valid to consider one's
personal feelings and how testing and dealing with the
results of testing affects one's experience.

Best wishes,
Ericka
newly_pregnant - 15 Aug 2007 17:31 GMT
<snip>

> Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree
> that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy."
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> personal feelings and how testing and dealing with the
> results of testing affects one's experience.

Thanks for your added input.

Like I said in my reply to Alath's informative post, to me false positive
also represents a risk.

> Best wishes,
> Ericka
alath - 16 Aug 2007 19:22 GMT
> while some people want to plan based on a diagnosis, it is
> also possible to put a plan in place just the same as many
> perfectly healthy people have a "living will" to tell caregivers
> what they want to happen in the event that something unexpected
> happens.

"make it up on the fly" doesn't work very well for perinatal hospice.
You may only have 30 minutes or half a day. As long as the diagnosis
is uncertain (ie; not known whether or not it is lethal), the default
position is going to be aggressive treatment. In the case of a lethal
karotypic anomaly, the results will probably not be back until after
the baby passes away. For people who want to make the most of the very
limited time they may have with their newborns, having the diagnosis
ahead of time is critical.

> would perhaps make one look more closely, it's probably more
> the mid-trimester ultrasound that would detect these malformations
> (associated with DS or not) that would form the basis for
> making such plans, no?

Yes, it is possible that the midtrimester ultrasound may trigger
further studies and a diagnosis can be made then. However, the
findings we are talking about can be very subtle and difficult to
detect especially in the case of heart defects. As a practical matter,
for most patients, having an early abnormal nuchal lucency screen
could be the difference between having multiple specialized
ultrasounds in a perinatal diagnostic center, versus having a quick
"routine" scan in the doctor's office.

I have known of more than one case of a lethal chromosome abnormality
that was missed on "routine" office ultrasounds. One of these women
had an emergency cesarean section that could certainly have been
avoided if the lethal diagnosis had been known beforehand.

>         Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree
> that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy."
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> personal feelings and how testing and dealing with the
> results of testing affects one's experience.

Of course. I don't think anything I have said is contrary to any of
this. I didn't say "everyone should mindlessly get every possible
test, just because." The question was, "is there any way a nuchal
lucency test could be helpful for someone who is not going to
terminate?" I listed three ways it could potentially be helpful.
Ericka Kammerer - 16 Aug 2007 19:51 GMT
>> while some people want to plan based on a diagnosis, it is
>> also possible to put a plan in place just the same as many
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> limited time they may have with their newborns, having the diagnosis
> ahead of time is critical.

    What is to prevent someone for filing the something
ahead of time, regardless of whether or not there is an
advance diagnosis, specifying under what conditions they
are interested in aggressive treatment?  (I am not suggesting
this is something that most people do--many people don't even
do this for themselves, and then end up in difficult circumstances.
I'm just asking why this would be impossible.)

>> would perhaps make one look more closely, it's probably more
>> the mid-trimester ultrasound that would detect these malformations
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> ultrasounds in a perinatal diagnostic center, versus having a quick
> "routine" scan in the doctor's office.

    Does this happen often?  Because it seems to me that
nearly everyone I've known who's had *any* ultrasounds have
had a rather extensive mid-trimester u/s where they were sent
to a lab and examined for quite an extensive period of time.
I've known many who have *also* had lots of quickie u/s
in the doctor's office, but I can't think of anyone IRL who's
chosen to have u/s at all who hasn't had a substantive
one with the specific goal of checking everything out.

> I have known of more than one case of a lethal chromosome abnormality
> that was missed on "routine" office ultrasounds. One of these women
> had an emergency cesarean section that could certainly have been
> avoided if the lethal diagnosis had been known beforehand.

    Still, I think we have to be very wary of this notion
that prenatal diagnosis guarantees perfect babies.  I realize
that care providers do not make this claim; however, at some
level, that is what many people believe.  You have the tests,
there are no findings, and the baby will be perfect.  Prenatal
testing has fundamentally affected the experience of pregnancy,
and not entirely in a positive way.  Yes, it provides useful
information that allows us to make important medical decisions
that lead to better outcomes.  At the same time, there are
downsides as well.  I'm trying to remember the name of a
book I read about a year ago that was a collection of papers,
some of which addressed this issue, but I guess it's just
going to have to keep nagging at me for a while because I
can't seem to dredge it up out of my memory or find it online
with the search terms I can think of!  That's all a bit of
an aside, though.
    Actually, the thing that made me comment about the
mid-trimester u/s was more that even if you had a diagnosis
of Downs syndrome (or a similar genetic anomaly), you still
wouldn't know for sure whether or not there would be, say,
cardiac problems.  You'd know the risk was elevated, and
so maybe you'd look more closely, but you'd still have to
rely on u/s to make the decision about whether immediate
intervention was needed at birth.  The detection of the
genetic anomaly in and of itself wouldn't give you the
information you needed.  So, the question is, if you are
going to have a detailed mid-trimester anomaly scan anyway,
and you would not consider termination, but would like to
make some plans in case immediate intervention at birth
was needed, do you still *need* the nuchal lucency test?

>>         Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree
>> that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy."
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> Of course. I don't think anything I have said is contrary to any of
> this.

    It's not that it's contrary.  It's just that *all*
prenatal tests have some potential to generate actionable
information.  If that wasn't the case, the test wouldn't
exist ;-)  This leads very rapidly into the idea that
all tests are worthwhile, because there is *some* possibility
that they could provide information.  As the limits of science
and medicine are expanded, this becomes even *more* complicated,
because we can do more things to fix what we might find.
It becomes very difficult to say no to tests, because there's
a sense that you owe it to your baby to give him or her *every*
*single* *chance* to identify a potential issue and fix it.
Nevertheless, every bit of information has a cost and unintended
consequences associated with it.  Those costs and consequences
are very difficult to articulate, so they often don't get
considered.  It isn't an easy balance to find.

> I didn't say "everyone should mindlessly get every possible
> test, just because." The question was, "is there any way a nuchal
> lucency test could be helpful for someone who is not going to
> terminate?" I listed three ways it could potentially be helpful.

    Right, and I agree that those are things to consider.
I'm just once again making the argument that there's another
side to consider that shouldn't get lost in the equation, and
that people should not be afraid to weigh some of the "squishier"
factors in making their personal decisions.

Best wishes,
Ericka
alath - 17 Aug 2007 02:01 GMT
>         What is to prevent someone for filing the something
> ahead of time, regardless of whether or not there is an
> advance diagnosis, specifying under what conditions they
> are interested in aggressive treatment?  

OK, here's how your scenario would play out:

Baby is born, doesn't transition well, needs resuscitation in the
delivery room. Has some physical exam findings that could be related
to a syndrome, but nobody is able to make a definitive diagnosis.
Imaging is done, cells are sent for karotype, and in the meantime the
baby is on a ventilator. The baby is on a ventilator at this time
because the diagnosis is not known, therefore the prognosis is not
known. We don't know if this is a lethal anomaly, or if it is a
survivable anomaly like trisomy 21 but requires some newborn intensive
care. This goes on for two or three days. The baby dies. The karotype
comes back at three or four days later, and you find out the baby had
trisomy 13; a lethal anomaly.

If you had known ahead of time, you would have known that intervention
was pointless and could have opted for a compassionate care plan
instead.

Since you didn't know, you lost the opportunity to spend quality non-
medical time with your child.

I'm not sure what you are getting at with your advance directive
specifying conditions. "Don't resuscitate my baby if it has any
dysmorphic features?" Without a diagnosis, you do not know what the
baby's prognosis is and you don't have any basis for the decision to
withhold treatment.

Regarding quality/extensiveness of ultrasound screening:
I don't know what is available or routine in your community. In my
area, a routine midtrimester screening exam will be performed usually
in the OB's office by a sonographer overseen by the OB. This is the
same person who spends most of his/her time doing hysterectomies and
bladder suspensions and normal deliveries and seeing women in the
office for hormone replacement. Out of maybe 30 minutes exam time,
perhaps 5 minutes of that will be spent on the fetal heart, generating
4 or 5 different anatomical views.
In my community, if a baby is known to have Down syndrome and the
parents want to continue, the anatomic survey will be performed in a
tertiary fetal diagnostic center. In addition to the 30-40 minute
anatomic survey, the baby will have a specialized exam for the heart -
usually at about 22-24 weeks (slightly later, to be able to visualize
the heart when it is larger and easier to see). Both of these exams
will be overseen by a perinataologist.
If I was a parent of a T21 baby and wanted the baby to survive, I
would certainly be a great deal more comfortable with the second
scenario.
Ericka Kammerer - 17 Aug 2007 03:13 GMT
>>         What is to prevent someone for filing the something
>> ahead of time, regardless of whether or not there is an
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
> baby's prognosis is and you don't have any basis for the decision to
> withhold treatment.

    OK, I can see that point if it is too difficult to
fairly quickly ascertain survivability.

> Regarding quality/extensiveness of ultrasound screening:
> I don't know what is available or routine in your community. In my
> area, a routine midtrimester screening exam will be performed usually
> in the OB's office by a sonographer overseen by the OB.

    I have no idea what is common elsewhere, but I can't
think of the last person I know *here* (i.e., where I live)
who had their routine midtrimester screening at their doctor's
office.  It certainly could happen here.  Goodness knows that
I have met only a small fraction of pregnant women around here ;-)
It's just that all the ones I *do* know seem to go to the lab
and report that the exams are closer to an hour in length.
This is a fairly densely populated area with a lot of medical
facilities, which I'm sure makes a difference.

> This is the
> same person who spends most of his/her time doing hysterectomies and
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> would certainly be a great deal more comfortable with the second
> scenario.

    And that's exactly the sort of thing that makes
women feel like it's irresponsible of them not to have all
the tests done.  For ever test, there's some situation that
could occur where the test could have made the difference.
But the question, to me, is to put things in a broader
context.  What are the possible downsides of the test?
How often does it *actually* make a difference?  What are
the alternatives?  What are the odds?  What impact will
the information have?  Which can you live with, the very
small chance that the baby will need the immediate, highly
specialized care, or the very small chance of a miscarriage
from an amnio to confirm the diagnosis, the months of
uncertainty with a suspicion but without a definitive diagnosis?
None of those are easy choices, and I think different
people find comfort along different paths.  Even when you
ask folks who've *been* through having a baby with a lethal
anomaly, staggeringly high numbers (to me, anyway--it usually
seems to be about 50 percent) say they would *not* have
prenatal testing in a future pregnancy.  I'm not sure even
I understand that, but they of all people have a right to
that decision (in my opinion).
    Anyway, I'm just arguing that these are complicated
decisions that come down to more than just the numbers.  At
the same time, I think the first trimester screening pretty
much beats the pants off the second trimester screening, and
thus has fewer downsides making it a better choice for many
who do want to be screened.

Best wishes,
Ericka
Anne Rogers - 17 Aug 2007 03:40 GMT
>     I have no idea what is common elsewhere, but I can't
> think of the last person I know *here* (i.e., where I live)
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> This is a fairly densely populated area with a lot of medical
> facilities, which I'm sure makes a difference.

In my experience, what you describe is unusual, with nationalised health
care in the UK, even though there is variety from trust to trust
(healthcare in a given are is managed by a trust, though they do keep
restructuring and changing names!), within one trust, things should be
pretty consistent, so one example tells you how the whole trust does it
rather than that particular doctor or midwife and it really does seem to
be that routine 20ish week ultrasound is the 20-30 minute version, with
a longer or more specific one only carried out if any additional risk
factors present, so friends who had a baby with a more minor heart
defect that hadn't been picked up, then had an extra ultrasound overseen
by the relevant specialist.

I can only speak for one hospital in Korea, but that also seemed to be a
20-30min ultrasound, we did end up with one heading towards an hour and
only realised later this was as soft markers for downs were found so
they were checking everything very thoroughly, we knew something was
going on as a whole series of doctors were called in, who's
conversations we couldn't understand. I feel as if I should be angry we
weren't informed, but in many ways I'm glad that we weren't, we'd
decided against routine ultrasound, but ended up with some 2nd trimester
issues (turned out to be my kidneys) and thus had an ultrasound, had we
been confronted with the information, it would have really thrown us, as
it was info we'd never expected to have to deal with. As it was, they
took appropriate action from the finding of the soft markers and we
weren't worried.

Cheers
Anne
Jodi B - 17 Aug 2007 03:49 GMT
Ericka wrote:

> I have no idea what is common elsewhere, but I can't
> think of the last person I know *here* (i.e., where I live)
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> This is a fairly densely populated area with a lot of medical
> facilities, which I'm sure makes a difference.

For this pregnancy I have been seen at a military hospital.  For my "big"
ultrasound, I was sent to radiology where a tech spent about 45 minutes looking
at and measuring every single body part, including internal organs.  The
ultrasound was then reviewed by a radiologist and the results were sent to
the OB.  Anectdotally, I've not heard of someone having their OB actually
do the midtrimester screening themselves.

FWIW, I had the midtrimester screening done because I had declined all other
testing (nuchal fold, AFP/triple screen, etc).  I wouldn't have terminated
under any circumstances, but if there were physical abnormalities that could
interfere with a vaginal delivery I wanted to know.  I can't say what I would
have done if they had found soft markers for DS or other genetic problems.

When I was about 7-ish weeks pregnant I had an ultrasound due to possible
miscarriage, and that was done in the OB clinic by a PA, but just to look
for a heartbeat and measure the size.

--Jodi
34-ish weeks w/babe #1

P.S. Ericka, thank you for taking the time to comment on that other article
I posted (about induction lowering c/s rates).  I was offline for awhile
and when I came back it appeared that my newsreader had eaten the thread!
But luckily I had read your response and really appreciated your input
alath - 17 Aug 2007 04:45 GMT
> at and measuring every single body part, including internal organs.  The
> ultrasound was then reviewed by a radiologist and the results were sent to
> the OB.  

Now that is a real rarity. The last prenatal diagnosis conference I
went to, one of the presenters asked for a show of hands by specialty.
Almost everyone was from the MFM/perinatal side. Only a tiny handful
were radiologists.

> Anectdotally, I've not heard of someone having their OB actually
> do the midtrimester screening themselves.

Most OBs certainly do not perform the exam themselves. In many cases
however it is the OB who signs off on the results. If we are talking
about a generalist OB, some are qualified for this but most frankly
are not. ACOG does not have standards for ultrasound in the education
of OB-Gyn residents. Maternal-fetal subspecialists do get a great deal
of specialty training in ultrasound and, generally, are probably best
qualified to supervise fetal sonography and pronounce on the
significance of the results. I've never worked in any system or
community where most people's routine midtrimester screening scans
were supervised by perinatologists (MFM), though. In the US, most
insurance carriers won't approve a perinatologist visit unless there
is an abnormal finding or a high risk diagnosis.
alath - 17 Aug 2007 04:31 GMT
>         Anyway, I'm just arguing that these are complicated
> decisions that come down to more than just the numbers.  

I agree that the realities are always more complicated than what we
think of ahead of time. I definitely do reject the oversimple "do
every test because that's what's best for the baby," or "more
information is always better," or "do all the tests and let the
professionals sort out what they mean: they know best." These are all
dangerous oversimplifications. Most people can adopt them and get away
with it, but every once in a while it could put them in a situation
they don't want to be.

What started me on this was an echo of another equally misleading
oversimplification, and one that is often repeated: "if you wouldn't
do an amnio or wouldn't terminate, there is no reason to do
screening." This is an equally dangerous oversimplification. And
again, in most cases, it's an oversimplification that you can get away
with. But every once in a while, it could put you in a situation where
you don't want to be.

It's never simple. Accepting a test is never simple. Declining a test
is never simple. These are always highly complex decisions with many
possible consequences. In most cases, mom and baby will both be fine
no matter what choices are made - so any discussion of testing or not
testing is always a discussion of rare unlikely events coming together
in complicated and often unforeseen ways.

One way to go at these decisions - not the best way, perhaps, and
certainly not the only way - is to consider what for you is the most
undesirable outcome and take that possibility off the table. Some of
my worst possible outcomes involve my baby dying in strangers' arms in
the midst of some invasive procedure because we don't know what's
going on and don't realize when it is time to say "quit." I have been
there when this happens, and it's bad enough as a provider. I don't
want to go anywhere near the parent end of this scenario. If my baby
has 25 minutes to live, I want to know that and make sure those 25
minutes are spent in the way that's best for my baby and my family.
That's what's important to me.

The original question was, "is there any reason to do this test, if
you wouldn't terminate?" I suggested some possibilities. I didn't say
"yes, for these reasons the test is mandatory and everyone should have
it." Instead, I said "here are some scenarios where it could make a
difference."

Whether we are considering scenarios where doing a test leads to some
undesirable situation, or those where declining a test leads to some
undesirable situation, it is up to the individual to determine which
of those scenarios is most meaningful (positively or negatively) to
them. Nor is relative incidence or likelihood the most salient factor,
because outcomes whether positive or negative do not all have equal
desirability or undesirability. If I wear my helmet every time I ride
my bike there is a 100% likelihood that I will experience helmet
related inconveniences, like getting my hair messed up. The chances
that I will have an accident such that my helmet saves my brain are by
comparison vanishingly remote. I'm still wearing my helmet, because to
me the inconvenices of wearing the helmet, though highly likely to
occur, are trivial compared to the consequences of a closed head
injury, however unlikely. It's not the relative likelihood of the
various outcomes, it's how I personally weigh the value of the
outcomes.

So, no, I'm not advocating that everyone should have first trimester
screening. It's far too much a complex and individual decision for
that.

Nor should anyone else suggest "if you wouldn't terminate, there's no
reason to screen." It's far too much a complex and individual decision
for that, too.
Anne Rogers - 17 Aug 2007 05:20 GMT
> One way to go at these decisions - not the best way, perhaps, and
> certainly not the only way - is to consider what for you is the most
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> minutes are spent in the way that's best for my baby and my family.
> That's what's important to me.

I think you have to put this kind of thing in the light of article such
as http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6948015.stm, I wish it included a
figure for the total number of downs babies, whether born or aborted,
versus the number of healthy babies miscarried due to tests, rather than
the number of live born downs babies, but either way, 3200 babies dieing
due to testing is an awful lot and that's the problem with prenatal
testing, it's stepping down the line to a test that carries a risk of
miscarriage and if you start, how do you know when to stop - I can see
your reasoning for knowing, even when you wouldn't terminate, but that
can leave a lot of parents stuck at the point knowing there is some
physical abnormality, with results from other tests not coming back at a
comparable risk to that of miscarriage from amniocentesis.

There is also the argument that the medical profession doesn't really
know for sure what the outcomes would be if some of the considered fatal
karotypes actually were aggressively treated as a baby with normal
genetics would be, though good outcomes are sufficiently rare, that it's
not a big factor.

Cheers
Anne
Ericka Kammerer - 17 Aug 2007 14:06 GMT
> One way to go at these decisions - not the best way, perhaps, and
> certainly not the only way - is to consider what for you is the most
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> minutes are spent in the way that's best for my baby and my family.
> That's what's important to me.

    Absolutely--and I'm sure that there are others who would
have the same view.

> The original question was, "is there any reason to do this test, if
> you wouldn't terminate?" I suggested some possibilities. I didn't say
> "yes, for these reasons the test is mandatory and everyone should have
> it." Instead, I said "here are some scenarios where it could make a
> difference."

    I understand that.  It's just such an emotionally charged
issue that I felt it worth discussing a little further on both
sides.

> So, no, I'm not advocating that everyone should have first trimester
> screening. It's far too much a complex and individual decision for
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> reason to screen." It's far too much a complex and individual decision
> for that, too.

    Agreed, hence the discussion which elucidates some of
the complexities ;-)

Best wishes,
Ericka
Sarah Vaughan - 17 Aug 2007 06:36 GMT
[...]
> In my community, if a baby is known to have Down syndrome and the
> parents want to continue, the anatomic survey will be performed in a
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> would certainly be a great deal more comfortable with the second
> scenario.

My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a
heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an
18 - 20 week scan, then it is probably not going to be major enough to
cause the baby to go straight into a life-or-death scenario where
minutes count without some sort of indication or warning postnatally.
I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens?  I'm not
trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious.

BTW, what you said about the lethal genetic abnormalities was
thought-provoking and something I hadn't considered.  Thank you.

All the best,

Sarah
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"That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be" - P. C. Hodgell

Anne Rogers - 17 Aug 2007 07:00 GMT
> My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a
> heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens?  I'm not
> trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious.

I think it's not necessarily a case of "can" be discovered, more whether
routinely discovered or not, there are a whole host of things that are
only revealed on ultrasound a certain percentage of the time.

I have a friend who's first baby had a valve narrowed in the heart, not
discovered on ultrasound (though I've come across instances where the
same condition has been), no problems in labour, something picked up at
routine paediatrican check, must have been clear it was something as
tests were done instantly (the weekend before christmas), rather than
referred for later checking. Baby had surgery (access via blood vessel
in the leg, not open heart surgery) about 3mths old iirc and is now a
happy healthy 3.5yr old - she had no symptoms at all before surgery.
They have since had a 2nd baby and certainly gave the impression that
this problem could have been found and they were referred for more
detailed heart ultrasound, which came back clear.

Obviously I'm not a doctor, but heart issues shortly after birth is just
not something I worry about - a babies heart is listened to so often,
that is might get through all those times and yet shortly after birth be
in such a state (purely due to a heart defect - rather than any event
occuring in labour) that location matters, must be vanishingly rare. The
one I worry about where choices would be important is a neural tube
defect where the lesion could be damaged in vaginal delivery, it may not
be entirely valid, but this would be the thing that would nag away at me
if I chose not to have ultrasounds and there was never an indication to
have one (last time around, I'd chosen not to, was out of the country
anyway, but ended up with several due to kidney problems in the 2nd
trimester).

Cheers
Anne
alath - 17 Aug 2007 14:34 GMT
> My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a
> heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an
> 18 - 20 week scan, then it is probably not going to be major enough to
> cause the baby to go straight into a life-or-death scenario where
> minutes count without some sort of indication or warning postnatally.

There are a lot of variables involved. One of them is the site of
delivery. I have personally been involved in the care with three
newborns who had unexpected critical heart defects. All survived.
However, all were delivered at Level III perinatal centers. I don't
know what would have happened if they'd been home births or delivered
at community hospitals.

Another variable is the defect itself. Transposition of the great
vessels and other outflow abnormalities are very unlikely to be
detected on a routine midtrimester scan. Thankfully these are very
rare in the general population. But remember, in this scenario we are
not talking about the general population. We are talking about a
scenario where we have a diagnosis of trisomy 21 that is known
beforehand. Heart defects of all kinds, including ones that are
difficult to detect, are much more common in aneuploid fetuses.

Also, the ability of an aneuploid fetus to survive suboptimal
uninformed initial care, and transfer to an higher level facility, may
be less than that of a newborn with an isolated heart defect (ie;
otherwise healthy newborn).

In summary, I believe my original point still holds: if you have an
aneuploid fetus and you want that baby to survive, it would be
advisable to have specialized heart studies prior to birth.

Watch out for this mistake - it is an easy trap to fall in to. For
instance, we often hear - correctly - that in the general population
fetal heart monitoring does not improve outcomes. However, if we are
talking about a fetus with severe growth restriction and
oligohydramnios in a mother with chronic hypertensiona and pre-
eclampsia, it is not appropriate to say "but there's no proven benefit
to fetal monitoring!"
Ericka Kammerer - 17 Aug 2007 15:23 GMT
> In summary, I believe my original point still holds: if you have an
> aneuploid fetus and you want that baby to survive, it would be
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> eclampsia, it is not appropriate to say "but there's no proven benefit
> to fetal monitoring!"

    Absolutely.  The tricky bit is determining how far
an individual is willing to go to determine whether or not
she is in the "general population."  It's a bit of a Catch-22.
Unless you do the testing, you can't guarantee whether you're
in the pool that most benefits from the testing ;-)  And
any step you take in testing has the possibility of placing
you in the pool that benefits from further testing and also
of landing you in some murky areas.
    Also, the studies are not "pure" in the sense that
a lot of these murky situations are built in, particularly
when there are retrospective designs.

    Again, this is *totally* not to negate your point.
If you have information that there is a possible issue, then
the rules for the "general population" don't apply.  If you
are planning a birth in a location where access to highly
specialized care is limited, then perhaps one of the tradeoffs
you make is deciding that it is a higher priority for you
to know whether you're potentially in a group that might
need immediate access to that specialized care.

Best wishes,
Ericka
Michelle J. Haines - 17 Aug 2007 18:53 GMT
> My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a
> heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens?  I'm not
> trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious.

Well, just as an anecdotal data point, we had a friend who had what I
recall as a relatively normal 18 week scan, but was reading large for
dates later and had another scan, to discover the baby had DiGeorge
syndrome (same chromosome pair affected as Down's, but with a chromosome
deletion rather than a third one).  They also found malformations in his
heart and lungs, and he did need mechanical assistance to breath, eat,
and some other interventions when he was born.  He also had heart
surgery when he was a few days old.  This was some years ago.

Michelle
Flutist
Cheryl - 18 Aug 2007 05:09 GMT
> My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a
> heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens?  I'm not
> trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious.

You're probably right in terms of there being less likely to be
minutes rather than hours, but there are definitely heart defects that
aren't easily able to be picked up prenatally that can cause life-or-
death scenarios when they are detected after birth.  I'm thinking
specifically here of any condition that stop blood returning to the
heart from the lungs - not necessary circulation before birth,
extremely necessary after birth.

There are also cases like my second son who had multiple heart defects
which camouflaged each other in the early stages.  He had tricuspid
atresia (completely missing tricuspid valve) and transposition of the
great arteries.  The transposed arteries meant that his right
ventricle was getting enough blood through his VSD initially so that
his heart was not asymmetrical until around the 30-ish week mark.  I
had an ultrasound at 28 weeks because the midwife was concerned about
IUGR but nothing was noted at that point with respect to his heart.
It was sheer coincidence that a minor car accident led me to have a
late ultrasound to check the placenta, at which point the fact that
his right ventricle was undersized had me sent off to a cardiologist.
If he had been born without diagnosis he would have been pink at birth
(his apgars were 8 and 8) but become blue within a very short time and
possibly had more problems than he did.  His prenatal diagnosis meant
that he was born with the cardiologist on standby and had his first
surgery to stabilise his condition at 4 hours old.

Cheryl
Ericka Kammerer - 18 Aug 2007 15:00 GMT
> There are also cases like my second son who had multiple heart defects
> which camouflaged each other in the early stages.  He had tricuspid
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> that he was born with the cardiologist on standby and had his first
> surgery to stabilise his condition at 4 hours old.

    I think this is an important sort of example.  It's a
wonderful thing that this was detected prenatally; however, it
was detected accidentally.  So the question to me would be
A) what would happen (and what are the outcomes by comparison)
without a prenatal diagnosis, and B) if there are better
outcomes with prenatal diagnosis, is there a reasonable way
to increase the rate of prenatal diagnosis without incurring
too many downsides, and C) what's the detection rate if you
look for this sort of thing at the right time.  In other words,
the fact that your late ultrasound detected something that
was a benefit to your baby does not necessarily mean that
everyone should have a late ultrasound (not that you were
arguing for that in your post).  We have to know more to
make that decision.
    By way of comparison, outcomes after heart attacks
would be *much* better if we knew they were coming.  However,
it just isn't doable to put everyone through significant
testing every few months to find out.  Still, it is
reasonable to do some things, like look for risk factors
that would indicate further testing is advisable and
advocate lifestyle changes that lower the risk.  Ultimately,
however, most heart attacks are going to be handled as
emergencies, at least with what we can do now.  (I realize
that's not an exact parallel--birth is obviously a
discrete event at which some of these issues can manifest
and we know when we can look for certain things, as opposed
to the much looser timelines for a heart attack.  Still,
I think the basic issue is similar.)

Best wishes,
Ericka
Cheryl - 19 Aug 2007 10:11 GMT
>         I think this is an important sort of example.  It's a
> wonderful thing that this was detected prenatally; however, it
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> arguing for that in your post).  We have to know more to
> make that decision.

It's a difficult call.  I can tell you the main difference in outcome
for me personally is that he would have been birthed at a different
hospital and ended up being transferred across to the children's
hospital while I was left behind.  I believe the standard protocol
would have called for him to be put on prostaglandins to ensure his
ductus arteriosis remained patent and placed in a humidicrib.  Other
than that almost everything would have remained the same but done a
few hours later.  I don't think for suburban hospitals that prenatal
diagnosis would make too much difference but this is of course a
completely different story for rural or semi-urban hospitals.  There
have been problems within in Australia at the moment with babies being
born by the roadside when they have been sent from one country town to
another due to lack of paediatricians in some country hospitals, if
one of those babies was an undiagnosed high risk patient the chance of
the baby dying is much higher.

As for the detection rate, well Alath has already said that cardiac
issues are not easily detected until after 24 weeks and this is what
my son's cardiologist said as well.  The ultrasound clinic where I had
my structural ultrasound with Thud had a sign placed later that
estimated only 60% of cardiac anomalies were picked up at 18-20
weeks.  I guess really the idea of having your structural ultrasound
during a period when the baby's heart and arteries are too small to
visualise accurately is the issue here, there are obviously good
reasons for having it at 18-20 weeks but I believe they have more to
do with termination laws rather than best practice.

Cheryl
alath - 19 Aug 2007 13:42 GMT
> reasons for having it at 18-20 weeks but I believe they have more to
> do with termination laws rather than best practice.

This is a very important point that I was considering bringing up
earlier. It plays in to the timing of ultrasound exams. 18-20 weeks is
not really the optimal time to scan, except that it allows enough time
for a genetic amnio and a termination before 24 weeks.

Elsewhere in this thread folks have brought up the issue of losses
related to genetic amnio. These procedure related loss rates are much
lower later in pregnancy. Therefore, if people are interested in
genetic diagnosis for reasons other than termination, they can wait
until the third trimester and get the same information with a much
lower risk of procedure related loss. This may alter the risk/benefit
ratio for some folks.
Ericka Kammerer - 19 Aug 2007 15:22 GMT
>> reasons for having it at 18-20 weeks but I believe they have more to
>> do with termination laws rather than best practice.
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> lower risk of procedure related loss. This may alter the risk/benefit
> ratio for some folks.

    Absolutely.  It always seems a little odd that
information like this doesn't seem to get out all that
much.  I always feel like people are presented with such
simplistic options, when there are really lots of alternatives
depending on what your personal goals are.

Best wishes,
Ericka
alath - 20 Aug 2007 19:41 GMT
>         Absolutely.  It always seems a little odd that
> information like this doesn't seem to get out all that
> much.  I always feel like people are presented with such
> simplistic options, when there are really lots of alternatives
> depending on what your personal goals are.

The reason for this is that it is literally mind-boggling to try to
invent all your care paradigms from scratch every time a different
patient walks in to the room. To some extent one has to have a
simplified decision algorithm, because if you are contantly thinking
about every possible option at every step of the way, you will wind up
being transferred from working on the OB unit to inpatient on the
psych unit. The trick lies in recognizing when a situation requires
starting with a clean sheet of paper, and when a situation fits well
within a practice pattern. Another trick lies in recognizing when a
practice pattern doesn't fit anyone very well, and needs to be changed.
Ericka Kammerer - 20 Aug 2007 20:40 GMT
>>         Absolutely.  It always seems a little odd that
>> information like this doesn't seem to get out all that
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> within a practice pattern. Another trick lies in recognizing when a
> practice pattern doesn't fit anyone very well, and needs to be changed.

    Exactly.  But I think there is a not infrequent tendency
to sell patients short and assume that they're fine with "the
usual" just because they don't know enough to ask all the right
questions.  And, you must admit, that it is not in the busy
caregiver's interest to open that can of worms.  I don't think
that this is all that difficult to deal with.  All you need is
a handout that explains the general recommendation and the
assumptions underlying it.  For those who don't really care,
it won't change anything.  If it's true that "the usual" really
does capture the most common preferences, then it won't change
things for most patients anyway.  But, for those who have a
different set of assumptions, it does at least point out the
possibility that there are different choices that can be
explored.

Best wishes,
Ericka
Anne Rogers - 19 Aug 2007 21:33 GMT
> This is a very important point that I was considering bringing up
> earlier. It plays in to the timing of ultrasound exams. 18-20 weeks is
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> lower risk of procedure related loss. This may alter the risk/benefit
> ratio for some folks.

In the UK, termination is allowed beyond 24 weeks if a "good" reason is
given, there was outrage not long ago when it came to light that there
had been at least one instance of cleft lip being the reason. However
scanning is still done at 20ish weeks. I don't have references to hand,
but it seems it is perceived that outcomes for the mother are better if
termination occurs before 24 weeks, but I can't find any evidence for
it, but I have seen some research suggesting mothers who carry to term
do better than those who don't, but the problem is, even fatal anomolies
have vastly varying life spans and it doesn't deal with non fatal
anomolies that some wish to terminate for. My understanding is that in
the US it's much less common to inject the heart to stop it beating
before delivery, so that brings up another issue with later termination,
but even so it does seem to come down to perceived rather than proved
benefits.

Cheers
Anne
Sarah Vaughan - 17 Aug 2007 23:11 GMT
> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic
> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> with a lethal fetal anomaly, I would much prefer to spend my 20
> minutes or 6 hours of life in my parents' arms.

Been thinking about this one.  Can a nuchal translucency test actually
*diagnose* a lethal fetal anomaly (as opposed to picking out a subgroup
of babies who are more likely to have one?)  What's the specificity?

All the best,

Sarah
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sinister - 19 Aug 2007 03:40 GMT
>> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic
>> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> *diagnose* a lethal fetal anomaly (as opposed to picking out a subgroup of
> babies who are more likely to have one?)  What's the specificity?

alath said the specificity is in the high 90s.  _However_, as I pointed out
in a reply, there's another number one should look at, the positive
predictive value, which is the chance that a positive test is a true
positive.

The PPP for this test, as far as I can tell by a brief skim on the internet,
is something like 20%.  (I think that's the PPP for the combined test.)
Which would mean if the test is positive, the chance that your baby is
__healthy__ is 80%.  Which is I think a very good reason not to get the test
if you're not going to abort anyway---if the test is positive, a lot of
worry could be generated.

> All the best,
>
> Sarah
Ericka Kammerer - 19 Aug 2007 04:08 GMT
>>> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic
>>> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
> if you're not going to abort anyway---if the test is positive, a lot of
> worry could be generated.

    Well, that depends on whether you're willing to have
the amnio to find out for sure.  If you're willing to have the
amnio, the worry is for a shorter period of time.  Or, if you
have a detailed ultrasound, that may not give you an definite
answer, but may make you more confident that there isn't a
problem that would require immediate high tech intervention
at birth.  For some, that lessens the worry, but not for
others.  And, of course, some will worry themselves sick
without doing the test in the first place.
    Still, I think the worry issue is a valid one.  Not
only do things like this change the experience of pregnancy
for individuals who make the decision one way or another,
but the "culture of testing" changes the experience for
everyone, regardless of individual decisions.

Best wishes,
Ericka
Sarah Vaughan - 19 Aug 2007 09:42 GMT
(Answering two posts at once for convenience)

>>>> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic
>>>> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition
[quoted text clipped - 15 lines]
>> positive predictive value, which is the chance that a positive test is
>> a true positive.

Excellent point.  PPV is probably what I meant (I do know the
differences between all these values, but it always makes my brain
explode trying to figure out which one I need in practice).

However, what I was getting at is this: If I've understood correctly,
what the nuchal translucency test actually picks out is not so much
specific syndromes as aneuploidy generally.  So, surely a positive test
could mean either a probably lethal anomaly or Down's?  I just did a
quick google & found a study showing that approximately half of the
fetuses testing strongly positive in one study had Down's, and the rest
had a mixture of Trisomy 18, Trisomy 13, and Turner's.  The prognosis
for all of these is so different that there is no way I would want to
withdraw lifesaving treatment from a newborn of mine purely on the basis
that it (probably) had *one* of those.  I'd want to know which one.

[...]
>     Well, that depends on whether you're willing to have
> the amnio to find out for sure.

Which is exactly what I was thinking.  This means that parents-to-be
thinking about getting these tests need to think not just "Would I want
to abort if the test was positive?" but "Would I want an amnio if the
test showed I was at high risk?"

Based on the numbers I've seen, I really doubt if I would, even if a
nuchal screening test did show high risk.  The chances of finding an
anomaly that would make me decide it wasn't even worth trying aggressive
treatment seem too high for me to feel that I'd want to take the risk of
miscarriage that comes with the test.

One interesting thought that comes to my mind - I wonder how feasible it
would be, in such a situation, to do an amnio much closer to term,
purely from the POV of making decisions about perinatal hospice if need be?

All the best,

Sarah
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"That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be" - P. C. Hodgell

betsy - 19 Aug 2007 15:02 GMT
> (Answering two posts at once for convenience)
>
[quoted text clipped - 32 lines]
> withdraw lifesaving treatment from a newborn of mine purely on the basis
> that it (probably) had *one* of those.  I'd want to know which one.

My test results separate out the Down Syndrome risk from the Trisomy
18/13 risk.  In my case, I was given a 1/43 risk for Down Syndrome but
only a 1/1801 risk for Trisomy 18/13.  The Down Syndrome part of the
result is considered positive, but the Trisomy 18/13 is not.

With this information, I don't really need to be concerned about a
lethal anomaly, but may want to know more so I can decide whether a
local hospital or home birth would be safe for my baby.  If I had
received a much more strongly positive result for Down Syndrome, I
would have choosen a high resolution ultrasound.  Now, I am still
wavering.

--Betsy
Anne Rogers - 19 Aug 2007 21:45 GMT
> One interesting thought that comes to my mind - I wonder how feasible it
> would be, in such a situation, to do an amnio much closer to term,
> purely from the POV of making decisions about perinatal hospice if need be?

I think it's hard because later amnios whilst having a lower risk of
harm, may well cause premature birth, rather than still birth, and
unpleasant though miscarriage is, it's probably perceived as better than
premature birth. Which would then mean pushing the alternative amnio
date back to 37 weeks, which is a long time to wait, potentially meaning
large numbers of women are planning for the worst only to get a last
minute reprieve and stress does affect pregnancy outcomes. It's still
probably a reasonable thing for a small number of people, but not
something that doctors are going to be shouting about being a
possibility. There is also the issue of how long it takes to get
results, which may start to push the date earlier. Plus, how to
premature birth rates compare, given the higher risk of still birth in
the fatal trisomies, I suspect it's higher than the general population,
so a number planning a late test won't make it to that date. I suspect
it's one of those things where it may well have value for some
individuals, but across a population is poor - though that shouldn't
mean that an individual shouldn't be able to choose it, on the basis it
seems like there is a high chance they are one of the ones it would be a
useful thing for.

Cheers
Anne
Sarah Vaughan - 19 Aug 2007 23:24 GMT
(Re: late amnios)

> I suspect
> it's one of those things where it may well have value for some
> individuals, but across a population is poor - though that shouldn't
> mean that an individual shouldn't be able to choose it, on the basis it
> seems like there is a high chance they are one of the ones it would be a
> useful thing for.

Yes, that's about what I was thinking - not so much that it would be a
good alternative on a widespread basis, but that perhaps this is
something that medical staff should be willing to consider as an option
that may suit some people.

All the best,

Sarah
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"That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be" - P. C. Hodgell

Anne Rogers - 20 Aug 2007 05:26 GMT
> Yes, that's about what I was thinking - not so much that it would be a
> good alternative on a widespread basis, but that perhaps this is
> something that medical staff should be willing to consider as an option
> that may suit some people.

It's so hard, because it seems like the medical profession have a fixed
idea of these things should be terminated for and then another group of
things that you want to know beforehand to plan for, so there isn't all
that much support or even desire to figure out what a good route might
be for the large numbers of people that fall outside of that model. For
me, when I had my two, I had youth on my side and was not particularly
anxious about anything (it does seem to me that age brings more anxiety
about these things, but I could be completely wrong on that one), so for
me, it was better to avoid all testing simply to avoid any pressure and
taking that step wasn't a worry to me. But now, I've lived a few more
years, I've seen more bad stuff happen, I think there would be a raised
level of anxiety, though it still probably isn't high compared to what
some people seem to be like (though my external assessment could be
wrong) and things don't seem quite so clear cut anymore - I could well
see myself being someone where late amnio could be helpful, if, and
that's a big if, I chose to go for any of the earlier diagnostic tests.

Cheers
Anne
sinister - 28 Aug 2007 15:39 GMT
<snip>

>>> alath said the specificity is in the high 90s.  _However_, as I pointed
>>> out in a reply, there's another number one should look at, the positive
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> between all these values, but it always makes my brain explode trying to
> figure out which one I need in practice).

Yeah, I can never remember that stuff; too many details.  That's what Google
is for.  Much more important than details is the understanding that
"specificity as precisely defined isn't the whole story."

> However, what I was getting at is this: If I've understood correctly, what
> the nuchal translucency test actually picks out is not so much specific
> syndromes as aneuploidy generally.  So, surely a positive test could mean
> either a probably lethal anomaly or Down's?  I just did a

I think that's right.

I'm not sure but I still think that the chance that a positive test still
leaves more than 50/50 the baby has no chromosomal problems at all.  Maybe
still around "80% things are actually OK."  Of course one can then do amnio
later but as we know that has miscarriage risk.

<snip>

Warmest regards,

S
Paula J - 15 Aug 2007 19:03 GMT
> Since we've made the decision that we won't abort for genetic disorders, is
> there any reason to have this test?  (We can't think of any.)

The other posters who responded gave you great information.

I'm currently expecting #4 (5th pregnancy) and this is the first time
I've had any screening tests performed. One of my children has cerebral
palsy, and I mainly wanted to know whether we had an increased risk of
having another child with special needs, just to prepare mentally for
more years of specialists and therapy. We would not terminate either. My
risk came back very low, and we won't have any further testing (although
I'll be having amnio to check for lung maturity if I make it to 36 weeks).

In my previous pregnancies, I've declined all screening tests other than
the standard ultrasounds (of which I have a lot because my pregnancies
are quite high risk and followed closely by a maternal-fetal
specialist). Anyway, that was my reasoning for opting to have the tests
done this time.

Congratulations and best of luck!

Paula
20w2d w/ #4
Mom to Olivia & Cassie, born 4/8/03 @ 26 weeks
and Noah, born 6/1/05 @ 35 weeks
 
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