nuchal fold test necessary?
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newly_pregnant - 15 Aug 2007 14:03 GMT My wife is pregnant (nearly 8 weeks now).
Pregnancy books discuss the nuchal fold test.
It seems like it's mainly for predicting Downs and other genetic disorders.
Since we've made the decision that we won't abort for genetic disorders, is there any reason to have this test? (We can't think of any.)
TIA
Ericka Kammerer - 15 Aug 2007 14:17 GMT > My wife is pregnant (nearly 8 weeks now). > [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > Since we've made the decision that we won't abort for genetic disorders, is > there any reason to have this test? (We can't think of any.) It is a screening test for Downs Syndrome, which means that it doesn't diagnose DS. It simply identifies whether you are at higher risk and might therefore benefit from more extensive testing to get a definitive diagnosis. Therefore, it is not a useful test if A) you would refuse further testing (e.g., amnio) or B) if knowledge of a diagnosis of DS (or knowledge of increased risk of DS) would not change your decision making. Obviously, pregnancy termination is the biggest decision one would confront. Some people might want the information in order to make other decisions (making preparations, change birth location, etc.). However, if you would not terminate, the other decisions you would make would generally be for your personal comfort level. E.g., some people would be reasonable comfortable finding out about a diagnosis at birth and dealing with whatever issues at that moment. Some other people would be eaten alive with worry and doubt without knowing and would want a definitive diagnosis ahead of time so they could study and plan and whatever. So, some people choose to find out even if they don't plan to terminate. (However, statistics suggest that a significant majority who find out *do* terminate.) So, bottom line is that some may make an argument for why you might want to know even if you wouldn't terminate, but it's certainly not essential to get a diagnosis.
Best wishes, Ericka
alath - 15 Aug 2007 14:39 GMT "Necessary?" No. Very few things are really "necessary." Desirable? Useful? Very possibly - even if you know you would not terminate.
Nuchal fold and nuchal lucency are two different tests. If you are talking about a test in early pregnancy, you are talking about the nuchal lucency test. Ideally this should also be combined with a blood test.
Some possible uses of prenatal screening for people who believe they would not terminate for fetal anomalies:
1) reassurance - if you are worried about the possibility of karotypic anomalies, the combined nuchal lucency + blood test is extremely reliable. If you get a negative result, you can be confident the baby does not have Down syndrome.
2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition incompatible with life outside the womb), some families prefer to plan a perinatal hospice. Without a diagnosis prior to birth, a baby with a lethal anomaly will probably wind up spending his or her entire life being resuscitated by a team of strangers. When families know about a lethal anomaly prior to birth, they can call off the resuscitation efforts and plan for peaceful family time instead. If I were a baby with a lethal fetal anomaly, I would much prefer to spend my 20 minutes or 6 hours of life in my parents' arms.
3) planning early neonatal care - babies with Down syndrome have a much higher incidence of malformations involving the heart and the airway. If your baby had one of these conditions, foreknowledge of the condition would enable potentially life-saving treatment in the delivery room.
The idea that prenatal diagnosis is a "search and destroy" method with no purpose other than to terminate anomalous babies is a myth. One of the leading prenatal diagnosis physicians in the US is also the president of the association of pro life ob gyns.
newly_pregnant - 15 Aug 2007 15:35 GMT > "Necessary?" No. Very few things are really "necessary." > Desirable? Useful? Very possibly - even if you know you would not [quoted text clipped - 34 lines] > the leading prenatal diagnosis physicians in the US is also the > president of the association of pro life ob gyns. Thanks for the very informative reply. (That goes for the other responding poster, as well.)
You wrote, "If you get a negative result, you can be confident the baby does not have Down syndrome." That's my impression from reading around (low false negative rate).
However---and I should emphasize this is only an impression from some initial skimming of material---isn't the false positive rate fairly high? I.e., the probability that the baby does not have Downs, given that the test is positive, is pretty high.
If so, that would lead us to not wanting to get the test in that the cost/benefit payoff doesn't seem so great. (Meaning we can live with not knowing, and the cost of the stress induced by a false positive would outweigh the benefits of knowing in the case there really was Downs. Not to denigrate your points made above, which are well-taken and informative.)
alath - 16 Aug 2007 19:26 GMT > However---and I should emphasize this is only an impression from some > initial skimming of material---isn't the false positive rate fairly high? > I.e., the probability that the baby does not have Downs, given that the test > is positive, is pretty high. The combined nuchal lucency and maternal blood test has sensitivity and specificity both in the high 90's. False positives are quite rare with this test. The vast majority of women who get these tests have negative results and normal babies.
betsy - 16 Aug 2007 21:18 GMT ---isn't the false positive rate fairly high?
> > I.e., the probability that the baby does not have Downs, given that the test > > is positive, is pretty high. [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > with this test. The vast majority of women who get these tests have > negative results and normal babies. I had this test. My result is considered positive. My age related risk is 1 in 48. The result I received listed my risk, based on freeBeta, PAPP-A, nuchal translucency and maternal age as 1 in 43. So, even though I have a positive result, I still, according to their numbers I should have a better than 97% chance of having a baby without Down Syndrome.
In the past, I have only had ultrasounds in emergencies and with 2 of my 3 children I did not have any ultrasounds. I avoid the doppler. I will not risk an amniocentesis. Now, I have to decide whether or not to have a 20 week ultrasound, based on these results and whether to travel to a city where I could have a high resolution ultrasound. I'm not sure that having the nuchal translucency was the right decision for me. If the results had been 1 in 5 or 1 in 2, I would have gone for the high resolution ultrasound, since there would be a higher chance of the baby needing care after birth that can't be obtained in local hospitals. Now, I'm not sure what to do.
--Betsy
alath - 17 Aug 2007 04:36 GMT What, for you, is the downside of the specialized ultrasound?
You hinted at the upside - potentially detecting a condition foreknowledge of which could lead to better treatment and possibly a better outcome for your baby.
So far, the only downside I'm hearing is having to drive to another town for the scan. Are there other downsides you're trying to balance here?
betsy - 17 Aug 2007 15:35 GMT > What, for you, is the downside of the specialized ultrasound? The 2 main downsides I see are:
1) Whatever the results are, it automatically puts me in a higher risk catagory. If I have a local hospital birth, protocols and expectations are somewhat different for women who have traveled for the high resolution ultrasound. I am particularly aware of this right now because of someone who works in maternity in the local hospital and was recently lamenting how she had put herself in the high risk system. Even though, by late pregnancy, nothing was wrong, her initial high resolution ultrasound had snowballed into possible risks, much stress and many ultrasounds throughout the pregnancy that she didn't feel she could say not to.
2) We don't really know what the risks of the ultrasound are. I know that the only thing we know that is statistically significant is an increase in left handedness. But, with that, the increase in left handedness does tend to signify changes in the brain.
> So far, the only downside I'm hearing is having to drive to another > town for the scan. Are there other downsides you're trying to balance > here? My morning sickness is bad enough that having any more ultrasounds seems like a major downside to me. The drive while sick, finding childcare for a whole day, taking a day off homeschooling etc. do make the trip seem daunting.
--Betsy
alath - 17 Aug 2007 21:52 GMT > 1) Whatever the results are, it automatically puts me in a higher > risk catagory. If I have a local hospital birth, protocols and [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > much stress and many ultrasounds throughout the pregnancy that she > didn't feel she could say not to. That sounds like a very messed up system. I have never worked in any system that has dynamics like what you describe. Are you somewhere other than the US by chance?
betsy - 17 Aug 2007 23:30 GMT > > 1) Whatever the results are, it automatically puts me in a higher > > risk catagory. If I have a local hospital birth, protocols and [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > system that has dynamics like what you describe. Are you somewhere > other than the US by chance? I'm in the US. I had a prenatal check today and discussed the ultrasound options with my doctor. Based on the test results, she would like me to have a twenty week ultrasound. She thinks a local ultrasound should pick up any defects that would require delivering in a large city. According to her, the high resolution ultrasound would be for us, if we want more information. She also would like me to have the AFP. For me, one test is also leading to more tests.
--Betsy
alath - 18 Aug 2007 02:46 GMT > For me, one test is also leading to more tests. Really? It seems to me you would have been offered the midtrimester ultrasound and serum screen even if you had not had the first trimester screen.
newly_pregnant - 17 Aug 2007 13:44 GMT >> However---and I should emphasize this is only an impression from some >> initial skimming of material---isn't the false positive rate fairly high? [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > with this test. The vast majority of women who get these tests have > negative results and normal babies. But the statistic I'm looking for (probability that the baby does not have Downs, given that the test is positive) is _not_ specificity. (Admittedly, it's not actually the "false positive rate," which as you say is 1 - specificity.) Rather, it's 1 - positive predictive value That's not to say that I _know_ this number is high. Rather, it _could_ be high even if specificity is high.
Ericka Kammerer - 15 Aug 2007 16:23 GMT > "Necessary?" No. Very few things are really "necessary." > Desirable? Useful? Very possibly - even if you know you would not [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > Some possible uses of prenatal screening for people who believe they > would not terminate for fetal anomalies: I do agree with what you're saying in general, but want to play devil's advocate a bit...
> 1) reassurance - if you are worried about the possibility of karotypic > anomalies, the combined nuchal lucency + blood test is extremely > reliable. If you get a negative result, you can be confident the baby > does not have Down syndrome. However, this reassurance is not complete (prenatal screening won't detect everything, and isn't 100 percent reliable detecting the things it can detect) and comes at a price (if you *don't* get a negative result, that affects your experience of pregnancy as well. Some people have started looking at the emotional and psychological consequences of prenatal testing, and the results are mixed and a bit complicated (and sometimes counter-intuitive). Does this mean that one shouldn't test? Of course not. But it does mean that testing is not an unalloyed good. I think it's worth considering some of the downsides as well, beyond just the technical false negatives and false positives.
> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic > anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > with a lethal fetal anomaly, I would much prefer to spend my 20 > minutes or 6 hours of life in my parents' arms. Absolutely agreed. However, I'm not sure that this particular issue hangs a lot on the nuchal lucency test. Some of us nutters aside, most folks have a mid-trimester ultrasound that probably catches more of this sort of thing than just about anything else. That's not to say that the u/s associated with the nuchal lucency wouldn't give an earlier heads up about some of these issues, but just that refusing the nuchal lucency doesn't deprive one of this opportunity. And, of course, while some people want to plan based on a diagnosis, it is also possible to put a plan in place just the same as many perfectly healthy people have a "living will" to tell caregivers what they want to happen in the event that something unexpected happens.
> 3) planning early neonatal care - babies with Down syndrome have a > much higher incidence of malformations involving the heart and the > airway. If your baby had one of these conditions, foreknowledge of the > condition would enable potentially life-saving treatment in the > delivery room. And also with this one, while a positive on the nuchal lucency screen (or a diagnosis resulting from further testing) would perhaps make one look more closely, it's probably more the mid-trimester ultrasound that would detect these malformations (associated with DS or not) that would form the basis for making such plans, no?
> The idea that prenatal diagnosis is a "search and destroy" method with > no purpose other than to terminate anomalous babies is a myth. One of > the leading prenatal diagnosis physicians in the US is also the > president of the association of pro life ob gyns. Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy." I do think, however, that it is worth considering exactly what one would do with the information (including precisely the things you describe above) and the potential alternate sources of information (and their attendant risks and benefits) in order to make a sensible decision for one's personal situation. I also think that it is valid to consider one's personal feelings and how testing and dealing with the results of testing affects one's experience.
Best wishes, Ericka
newly_pregnant - 15 Aug 2007 17:31 GMT <snip>
> Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree > that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy." [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > personal feelings and how testing and dealing with the > results of testing affects one's experience. Thanks for your added input.
Like I said in my reply to Alath's informative post, to me false positive also represents a risk.
> Best wishes, > Ericka alath - 16 Aug 2007 19:22 GMT > while some people want to plan based on a diagnosis, it is > also possible to put a plan in place just the same as many > perfectly healthy people have a "living will" to tell caregivers > what they want to happen in the event that something unexpected > happens. "make it up on the fly" doesn't work very well for perinatal hospice. You may only have 30 minutes or half a day. As long as the diagnosis is uncertain (ie; not known whether or not it is lethal), the default position is going to be aggressive treatment. In the case of a lethal karotypic anomaly, the results will probably not be back until after the baby passes away. For people who want to make the most of the very limited time they may have with their newborns, having the diagnosis ahead of time is critical.
> would perhaps make one look more closely, it's probably more > the mid-trimester ultrasound that would detect these malformations > (associated with DS or not) that would form the basis for > making such plans, no? Yes, it is possible that the midtrimester ultrasound may trigger further studies and a diagnosis can be made then. However, the findings we are talking about can be very subtle and difficult to detect especially in the case of heart defects. As a practical matter, for most patients, having an early abnormal nuchal lucency screen could be the difference between having multiple specialized ultrasounds in a perinatal diagnostic center, versus having a quick "routine" scan in the doctor's office.
I have known of more than one case of a lethal chromosome abnormality that was missed on "routine" office ultrasounds. One of these women had an emergency cesarean section that could certainly have been avoided if the lethal diagnosis had been known beforehand.
> Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree > that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy." [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > personal feelings and how testing and dealing with the > results of testing affects one's experience. Of course. I don't think anything I have said is contrary to any of this. I didn't say "everyone should mindlessly get every possible test, just because." The question was, "is there any way a nuchal lucency test could be helpful for someone who is not going to terminate?" I listed three ways it could potentially be helpful.
Ericka Kammerer - 16 Aug 2007 19:51 GMT >> while some people want to plan based on a diagnosis, it is >> also possible to put a plan in place just the same as many [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > limited time they may have with their newborns, having the diagnosis > ahead of time is critical. What is to prevent someone for filing the something ahead of time, regardless of whether or not there is an advance diagnosis, specifying under what conditions they are interested in aggressive treatment? (I am not suggesting this is something that most people do--many people don't even do this for themselves, and then end up in difficult circumstances. I'm just asking why this would be impossible.)
>> would perhaps make one look more closely, it's probably more >> the mid-trimester ultrasound that would detect these malformations [quoted text clipped - 9 lines] > ultrasounds in a perinatal diagnostic center, versus having a quick > "routine" scan in the doctor's office. Does this happen often? Because it seems to me that nearly everyone I've known who's had *any* ultrasounds have had a rather extensive mid-trimester u/s where they were sent to a lab and examined for quite an extensive period of time. I've known many who have *also* had lots of quickie u/s in the doctor's office, but I can't think of anyone IRL who's chosen to have u/s at all who hasn't had a substantive one with the specific goal of checking everything out.
> I have known of more than one case of a lethal chromosome abnormality > that was missed on "routine" office ultrasounds. One of these women > had an emergency cesarean section that could certainly have been > avoided if the lethal diagnosis had been known beforehand. Still, I think we have to be very wary of this notion that prenatal diagnosis guarantees perfect babies. I realize that care providers do not make this claim; however, at some level, that is what many people believe. You have the tests, there are no findings, and the baby will be perfect. Prenatal testing has fundamentally affected the experience of pregnancy, and not entirely in a positive way. Yes, it provides useful information that allows us to make important medical decisions that lead to better outcomes. At the same time, there are downsides as well. I'm trying to remember the name of a book I read about a year ago that was a collection of papers, some of which addressed this issue, but I guess it's just going to have to keep nagging at me for a while because I can't seem to dredge it up out of my memory or find it online with the search terms I can think of! That's all a bit of an aside, though. Actually, the thing that made me comment about the mid-trimester u/s was more that even if you had a diagnosis of Downs syndrome (or a similar genetic anomaly), you still wouldn't know for sure whether or not there would be, say, cardiac problems. You'd know the risk was elevated, and so maybe you'd look more closely, but you'd still have to rely on u/s to make the decision about whether immediate intervention was needed at birth. The detection of the genetic anomaly in and of itself wouldn't give you the information you needed. So, the question is, if you are going to have a detailed mid-trimester anomaly scan anyway, and you would not consider termination, but would like to make some plans in case immediate intervention at birth was needed, do you still *need* the nuchal lucency test?
>> Again, just to reiterate, I do absolutely agree >> that prenatal diagnosis is not just about "search and destroy." [quoted text clipped - 9 lines] > Of course. I don't think anything I have said is contrary to any of > this. It's not that it's contrary. It's just that *all* prenatal tests have some potential to generate actionable information. If that wasn't the case, the test wouldn't exist ;-) This leads very rapidly into the idea that all tests are worthwhile, because there is *some* possibility that they could provide information. As the limits of science and medicine are expanded, this becomes even *more* complicated, because we can do more things to fix what we might find. It becomes very difficult to say no to tests, because there's a sense that you owe it to your baby to give him or her *every* *single* *chance* to identify a potential issue and fix it. Nevertheless, every bit of information has a cost and unintended consequences associated with it. Those costs and consequences are very difficult to articulate, so they often don't get considered. It isn't an easy balance to find.
> I didn't say "everyone should mindlessly get every possible > test, just because." The question was, "is there any way a nuchal > lucency test could be helpful for someone who is not going to > terminate?" I listed three ways it could potentially be helpful. Right, and I agree that those are things to consider. I'm just once again making the argument that there's another side to consider that shouldn't get lost in the equation, and that people should not be afraid to weigh some of the "squishier" factors in making their personal decisions.
Best wishes, Ericka
alath - 17 Aug 2007 02:01 GMT > What is to prevent someone for filing the something > ahead of time, regardless of whether or not there is an > advance diagnosis, specifying under what conditions they > are interested in aggressive treatment? OK, here's how your scenario would play out:
Baby is born, doesn't transition well, needs resuscitation in the delivery room. Has some physical exam findings that could be related to a syndrome, but nobody is able to make a definitive diagnosis. Imaging is done, cells are sent for karotype, and in the meantime the baby is on a ventilator. The baby is on a ventilator at this time because the diagnosis is not known, therefore the prognosis is not known. We don't know if this is a lethal anomaly, or if it is a survivable anomaly like trisomy 21 but requires some newborn intensive care. This goes on for two or three days. The baby dies. The karotype comes back at three or four days later, and you find out the baby had trisomy 13; a lethal anomaly.
If you had known ahead of time, you would have known that intervention was pointless and could have opted for a compassionate care plan instead.
Since you didn't know, you lost the opportunity to spend quality non- medical time with your child.
I'm not sure what you are getting at with your advance directive specifying conditions. "Don't resuscitate my baby if it has any dysmorphic features?" Without a diagnosis, you do not know what the baby's prognosis is and you don't have any basis for the decision to withhold treatment.
Regarding quality/extensiveness of ultrasound screening: I don't know what is available or routine in your community. In my area, a routine midtrimester screening exam will be performed usually in the OB's office by a sonographer overseen by the OB. This is the same person who spends most of his/her time doing hysterectomies and bladder suspensions and normal deliveries and seeing women in the office for hormone replacement. Out of maybe 30 minutes exam time, perhaps 5 minutes of that will be spent on the fetal heart, generating 4 or 5 different anatomical views. In my community, if a baby is known to have Down syndrome and the parents want to continue, the anatomic survey will be performed in a tertiary fetal diagnostic center. In addition to the 30-40 minute anatomic survey, the baby will have a specialized exam for the heart - usually at about 22-24 weeks (slightly later, to be able to visualize the heart when it is larger and easier to see). Both of these exams will be overseen by a perinataologist. If I was a parent of a T21 baby and wanted the baby to survive, I would certainly be a great deal more comfortable with the second scenario.
Ericka Kammerer - 17 Aug 2007 03:13 GMT >> What is to prevent someone for filing the something >> ahead of time, regardless of whether or not there is an [quoted text clipped - 27 lines] > baby's prognosis is and you don't have any basis for the decision to > withhold treatment. OK, I can see that point if it is too difficult to fairly quickly ascertain survivability.
> Regarding quality/extensiveness of ultrasound screening: > I don't know what is available or routine in your community. In my > area, a routine midtrimester screening exam will be performed usually > in the OB's office by a sonographer overseen by the OB. I have no idea what is common elsewhere, but I can't think of the last person I know *here* (i.e., where I live) who had their routine midtrimester screening at their doctor's office. It certainly could happen here. Goodness knows that I have met only a small fraction of pregnant women around here ;-) It's just that all the ones I *do* know seem to go to the lab and report that the exams are closer to an hour in length. This is a fairly densely populated area with a lot of medical facilities, which I'm sure makes a difference.
> This is the > same person who spends most of his/her time doing hysterectomies and [quoted text clipped - 12 lines] > would certainly be a great deal more comfortable with the second > scenario. And that's exactly the sort of thing that makes women feel like it's irresponsible of them not to have all the tests done. For ever test, there's some situation that could occur where the test could have made the difference. But the question, to me, is to put things in a broader context. What are the possible downsides of the test? How often does it *actually* make a difference? What are the alternatives? What are the odds? What impact will the information have? Which can you live with, the very small chance that the baby will need the immediate, highly specialized care, or the very small chance of a miscarriage from an amnio to confirm the diagnosis, the months of uncertainty with a suspicion but without a definitive diagnosis? None of those are easy choices, and I think different people find comfort along different paths. Even when you ask folks who've *been* through having a baby with a lethal anomaly, staggeringly high numbers (to me, anyway--it usually seems to be about 50 percent) say they would *not* have prenatal testing in a future pregnancy. I'm not sure even I understand that, but they of all people have a right to that decision (in my opinion). Anyway, I'm just arguing that these are complicated decisions that come down to more than just the numbers. At the same time, I think the first trimester screening pretty much beats the pants off the second trimester screening, and thus has fewer downsides making it a better choice for many who do want to be screened.
Best wishes, Ericka
Anne Rogers - 17 Aug 2007 03:40 GMT > I have no idea what is common elsewhere, but I can't > think of the last person I know *here* (i.e., where I live) [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > This is a fairly densely populated area with a lot of medical > facilities, which I'm sure makes a difference. In my experience, what you describe is unusual, with nationalised health care in the UK, even though there is variety from trust to trust (healthcare in a given are is managed by a trust, though they do keep restructuring and changing names!), within one trust, things should be pretty consistent, so one example tells you how the whole trust does it rather than that particular doctor or midwife and it really does seem to be that routine 20ish week ultrasound is the 20-30 minute version, with a longer or more specific one only carried out if any additional risk factors present, so friends who had a baby with a more minor heart defect that hadn't been picked up, then had an extra ultrasound overseen by the relevant specialist.
I can only speak for one hospital in Korea, but that also seemed to be a 20-30min ultrasound, we did end up with one heading towards an hour and only realised later this was as soft markers for downs were found so they were checking everything very thoroughly, we knew something was going on as a whole series of doctors were called in, who's conversations we couldn't understand. I feel as if I should be angry we weren't informed, but in many ways I'm glad that we weren't, we'd decided against routine ultrasound, but ended up with some 2nd trimester issues (turned out to be my kidneys) and thus had an ultrasound, had we been confronted with the information, it would have really thrown us, as it was info we'd never expected to have to deal with. As it was, they took appropriate action from the finding of the soft markers and we weren't worried.
Cheers Anne
Jodi B - 17 Aug 2007 03:49 GMT Ericka wrote:
> I have no idea what is common elsewhere, but I can't > think of the last person I know *here* (i.e., where I live) [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > This is a fairly densely populated area with a lot of medical > facilities, which I'm sure makes a difference. For this pregnancy I have been seen at a military hospital. For my "big" ultrasound, I was sent to radiology where a tech spent about 45 minutes looking at and measuring every single body part, including internal organs. The ultrasound was then reviewed by a radiologist and the results were sent to the OB. Anectdotally, I've not heard of someone having their OB actually do the midtrimester screening themselves.
FWIW, I had the midtrimester screening done because I had declined all other testing (nuchal fold, AFP/triple screen, etc). I wouldn't have terminated under any circumstances, but if there were physical abnormalities that could interfere with a vaginal delivery I wanted to know. I can't say what I would have done if they had found soft markers for DS or other genetic problems.
When I was about 7-ish weeks pregnant I had an ultrasound due to possible miscarriage, and that was done in the OB clinic by a PA, but just to look for a heartbeat and measure the size.
--Jodi 34-ish weeks w/babe #1
P.S. Ericka, thank you for taking the time to comment on that other article I posted (about induction lowering c/s rates). I was offline for awhile and when I came back it appeared that my newsreader had eaten the thread! But luckily I had read your response and really appreciated your input
alath - 17 Aug 2007 04:45 GMT > at and measuring every single body part, including internal organs. The > ultrasound was then reviewed by a radiologist and the results were sent to > the OB. Now that is a real rarity. The last prenatal diagnosis conference I went to, one of the presenters asked for a show of hands by specialty. Almost everyone was from the MFM/perinatal side. Only a tiny handful were radiologists.
> Anectdotally, I've not heard of someone having their OB actually > do the midtrimester screening themselves. Most OBs certainly do not perform the exam themselves. In many cases however it is the OB who signs off on the results. If we are talking about a generalist OB, some are qualified for this but most frankly are not. ACOG does not have standards for ultrasound in the education of OB-Gyn residents. Maternal-fetal subspecialists do get a great deal of specialty training in ultrasound and, generally, are probably best qualified to supervise fetal sonography and pronounce on the significance of the results. I've never worked in any system or community where most people's routine midtrimester screening scans were supervised by perinatologists (MFM), though. In the US, most insurance carriers won't approve a perinatologist visit unless there is an abnormal finding or a high risk diagnosis.
alath - 17 Aug 2007 04:31 GMT > Anyway, I'm just arguing that these are complicated > decisions that come down to more than just the numbers. I agree that the realities are always more complicated than what we think of ahead of time. I definitely do reject the oversimple "do every test because that's what's best for the baby," or "more information is always better," or "do all the tests and let the professionals sort out what they mean: they know best." These are all dangerous oversimplifications. Most people can adopt them and get away with it, but every once in a while it could put them in a situation they don't want to be.
What started me on this was an echo of another equally misleading oversimplification, and one that is often repeated: "if you wouldn't do an amnio or wouldn't terminate, there is no reason to do screening." This is an equally dangerous oversimplification. And again, in most cases, it's an oversimplification that you can get away with. But every once in a while, it could put you in a situation where you don't want to be.
It's never simple. Accepting a test is never simple. Declining a test is never simple. These are always highly complex decisions with many possible consequences. In most cases, mom and baby will both be fine no matter what choices are made - so any discussion of testing or not testing is always a discussion of rare unlikely events coming together in complicated and often unforeseen ways.
One way to go at these decisions - not the best way, perhaps, and certainly not the only way - is to consider what for you is the most undesirable outcome and take that possibility off the table. Some of my worst possible outcomes involve my baby dying in strangers' arms in the midst of some invasive procedure because we don't know what's going on and don't realize when it is time to say "quit." I have been there when this happens, and it's bad enough as a provider. I don't want to go anywhere near the parent end of this scenario. If my baby has 25 minutes to live, I want to know that and make sure those 25 minutes are spent in the way that's best for my baby and my family. That's what's important to me.
The original question was, "is there any reason to do this test, if you wouldn't terminate?" I suggested some possibilities. I didn't say "yes, for these reasons the test is mandatory and everyone should have it." Instead, I said "here are some scenarios where it could make a difference."
Whether we are considering scenarios where doing a test leads to some undesirable situation, or those where declining a test leads to some undesirable situation, it is up to the individual to determine which of those scenarios is most meaningful (positively or negatively) to them. Nor is relative incidence or likelihood the most salient factor, because outcomes whether positive or negative do not all have equal desirability or undesirability. If I wear my helmet every time I ride my bike there is a 100% likelihood that I will experience helmet related inconveniences, like getting my hair messed up. The chances that I will have an accident such that my helmet saves my brain are by comparison vanishingly remote. I'm still wearing my helmet, because to me the inconvenices of wearing the helmet, though highly likely to occur, are trivial compared to the consequences of a closed head injury, however unlikely. It's not the relative likelihood of the various outcomes, it's how I personally weigh the value of the outcomes.
So, no, I'm not advocating that everyone should have first trimester screening. It's far too much a complex and individual decision for that.
Nor should anyone else suggest "if you wouldn't terminate, there's no reason to screen." It's far too much a complex and individual decision for that, too.
Anne Rogers - 17 Aug 2007 05:20 GMT > One way to go at these decisions - not the best way, perhaps, and > certainly not the only way - is to consider what for you is the most [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > minutes are spent in the way that's best for my baby and my family. > That's what's important to me. I think you have to put this kind of thing in the light of article such as http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6948015.stm, I wish it included a figure for the total number of downs babies, whether born or aborted, versus the number of healthy babies miscarried due to tests, rather than the number of live born downs babies, but either way, 3200 babies dieing due to testing is an awful lot and that's the problem with prenatal testing, it's stepping down the line to a test that carries a risk of miscarriage and if you start, how do you know when to stop - I can see your reasoning for knowing, even when you wouldn't terminate, but that can leave a lot of parents stuck at the point knowing there is some physical abnormality, with results from other tests not coming back at a comparable risk to that of miscarriage from amniocentesis.
There is also the argument that the medical profession doesn't really know for sure what the outcomes would be if some of the considered fatal karotypes actually were aggressively treated as a baby with normal genetics would be, though good outcomes are sufficiently rare, that it's not a big factor.
Cheers Anne
Ericka Kammerer - 17 Aug 2007 14:06 GMT > One way to go at these decisions - not the best way, perhaps, and > certainly not the only way - is to consider what for you is the most [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > minutes are spent in the way that's best for my baby and my family. > That's what's important to me. Absolutely--and I'm sure that there are others who would have the same view.
> The original question was, "is there any reason to do this test, if > you wouldn't terminate?" I suggested some possibilities. I didn't say > "yes, for these reasons the test is mandatory and everyone should have > it." Instead, I said "here are some scenarios where it could make a > difference." I understand that. It's just such an emotionally charged issue that I felt it worth discussing a little further on both sides.
> So, no, I'm not advocating that everyone should have first trimester > screening. It's far too much a complex and individual decision for [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > reason to screen." It's far too much a complex and individual decision > for that, too. Agreed, hence the discussion which elucidates some of the complexities ;-)
Best wishes, Ericka
Sarah Vaughan - 17 Aug 2007 06:36 GMT [...]
> In my community, if a baby is known to have Down syndrome and the > parents want to continue, the anatomic survey will be performed in a [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > would certainly be a great deal more comfortable with the second > scenario. My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an 18 - 20 week scan, then it is probably not going to be major enough to cause the baby to go straight into a life-or-death scenario where minutes count without some sort of indication or warning postnatally. I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens? I'm not trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious.
BTW, what you said about the lethal genetic abnormalities was thought-provoking and something I hadn't considered. Thank you.
All the best,
Sarah
 Signature http://www.goodenoughmummy.typepad.com
"That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be" - P. C. Hodgell
Anne Rogers - 17 Aug 2007 07:00 GMT > My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a > heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens? I'm not > trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious. I think it's not necessarily a case of "can" be discovered, more whether routinely discovered or not, there are a whole host of things that are only revealed on ultrasound a certain percentage of the time.
I have a friend who's first baby had a valve narrowed in the heart, not discovered on ultrasound (though I've come across instances where the same condition has been), no problems in labour, something picked up at routine paediatrican check, must have been clear it was something as tests were done instantly (the weekend before christmas), rather than referred for later checking. Baby had surgery (access via blood vessel in the leg, not open heart surgery) about 3mths old iirc and is now a happy healthy 3.5yr old - she had no symptoms at all before surgery. They have since had a 2nd baby and certainly gave the impression that this problem could have been found and they were referred for more detailed heart ultrasound, which came back clear.
Obviously I'm not a doctor, but heart issues shortly after birth is just not something I worry about - a babies heart is listened to so often, that is might get through all those times and yet shortly after birth be in such a state (purely due to a heart defect - rather than any event occuring in labour) that location matters, must be vanishingly rare. The one I worry about where choices would be important is a neural tube defect where the lesion could be damaged in vaginal delivery, it may not be entirely valid, but this would be the thing that would nag away at me if I chose not to have ultrasounds and there was never an indication to have one (last time around, I'd chosen not to, was out of the country anyway, but ended up with several due to kidney problems in the 2nd trimester).
Cheers Anne
alath - 17 Aug 2007 14:34 GMT > My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a > heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an > 18 - 20 week scan, then it is probably not going to be major enough to > cause the baby to go straight into a life-or-death scenario where > minutes count without some sort of indication or warning postnatally. There are a lot of variables involved. One of them is the site of delivery. I have personally been involved in the care with three newborns who had unexpected critical heart defects. All survived. However, all were delivered at Level III perinatal centers. I don't know what would have happened if they'd been home births or delivered at community hospitals.
Another variable is the defect itself. Transposition of the great vessels and other outflow abnormalities are very unlikely to be detected on a routine midtrimester scan. Thankfully these are very rare in the general population. But remember, in this scenario we are not talking about the general population. We are talking about a scenario where we have a diagnosis of trisomy 21 that is known beforehand. Heart defects of all kinds, including ones that are difficult to detect, are much more common in aneuploid fetuses.
Also, the ability of an aneuploid fetus to survive suboptimal uninformed initial care, and transfer to an higher level facility, may be less than that of a newborn with an isolated heart defect (ie; otherwise healthy newborn).
In summary, I believe my original point still holds: if you have an aneuploid fetus and you want that baby to survive, it would be advisable to have specialized heart studies prior to birth.
Watch out for this mistake - it is an easy trap to fall in to. For instance, we often hear - correctly - that in the general population fetal heart monitoring does not improve outcomes. However, if we are talking about a fetus with severe growth restriction and oligohydramnios in a mother with chronic hypertensiona and pre- eclampsia, it is not appropriate to say "but there's no proven benefit to fetal monitoring!"
Ericka Kammerer - 17 Aug 2007 15:23 GMT > In summary, I believe my original point still holds: if you have an > aneuploid fetus and you want that baby to survive, it would be [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > eclampsia, it is not appropriate to say "but there's no proven benefit > to fetal monitoring!" Absolutely. The tricky bit is determining how far an individual is willing to go to determine whether or not she is in the "general population." It's a bit of a Catch-22. Unless you do the testing, you can't guarantee whether you're in the pool that most benefits from the testing ;-) And any step you take in testing has the possibility of placing you in the pool that benefits from further testing and also of landing you in some murky areas. Also, the studies are not "pure" in the sense that a lot of these murky situations are built in, particularly when there are retrospective designs.
Again, this is *totally* not to negate your point. If you have information that there is a possible issue, then the rules for the "general population" don't apply. If you are planning a birth in a location where access to highly specialized care is limited, then perhaps one of the tradeoffs you make is deciding that it is a higher priority for you to know whether you're potentially in a group that might need immediate access to that specialized care.
Best wishes, Ericka
Michelle J. Haines - 17 Aug 2007 18:53 GMT > My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a > heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens? I'm not > trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious. Well, just as an anecdotal data point, we had a friend who had what I recall as a relatively normal 18 week scan, but was reading large for dates later and had another scan, to discover the baby had DiGeorge syndrome (same chromosome pair affected as Down's, but with a chromosome deletion rather than a third one). They also found malformations in his heart and lungs, and he did need mechanical assistance to breath, eat, and some other interventions when he was born. He also had heart surgery when he was a few days old. This was some years ago.
Michelle Flutist
Cheryl - 18 Aug 2007 05:09 GMT > My understanding - which could very well be wrong - has been that if a > heart defect (or any other defect) isn't major enough to show up on an [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > I'm curious - how often would you say such a case happens? I'm not > trying to disagree with you - I'm honestly curious. You're probably right in terms of there being less likely to be minutes rather than hours, but there are definitely heart defects that aren't easily able to be picked up prenatally that can cause life-or- death scenarios when they are detected after birth. I'm thinking specifically here of any condition that stop blood returning to the heart from the lungs - not necessary circulation before birth, extremely necessary after birth.
There are also cases like my second son who had multiple heart defects which camouflaged each other in the early stages. He had tricuspid atresia (completely missing tricuspid valve) and transposition of the great arteries. The transposed arteries meant that his right ventricle was getting enough blood through his VSD initially so that his heart was not asymmetrical until around the 30-ish week mark. I had an ultrasound at 28 weeks because the midwife was concerned about IUGR but nothing was noted at that point with respect to his heart. It was sheer coincidence that a minor car accident led me to have a late ultrasound to check the placenta, at which point the fact that his right ventricle was undersized had me sent off to a cardiologist. If he had been born without diagnosis he would have been pink at birth (his apgars were 8 and 8) but become blue within a very short time and possibly had more problems than he did. His prenatal diagnosis meant that he was born with the cardiologist on standby and had his first surgery to stabilise his condition at 4 hours old.
Cheryl
Ericka Kammerer - 18 Aug 2007 15:00 GMT > There are also cases like my second son who had multiple heart defects > which camouflaged each other in the early stages. He had tricuspid [quoted text clipped - 12 lines] > that he was born with the cardiologist on standby and had his first > surgery to stabilise his condition at 4 hours old. I think this is an important sort of example. It's a wonderful thing that this was detected prenatally; however, it was detected accidentally. So the question to me would be A) what would happen (and what are the outcomes by comparison) without a prenatal diagnosis, and B) if there are better outcomes with prenatal diagnosis, is there a reasonable way to increase the rate of prenatal diagnosis without incurring too many downsides, and C) what's the detection rate if you look for this sort of thing at the right time. In other words, the fact that your late ultrasound detected something that was a benefit to your baby does not necessarily mean that everyone should have a late ultrasound (not that you were arguing for that in your post). We have to know more to make that decision. By way of comparison, outcomes after heart attacks would be *much* better if we knew they were coming. However, it just isn't doable to put everyone through significant testing every few months to find out. Still, it is reasonable to do some things, like look for risk factors that would indicate further testing is advisable and advocate lifestyle changes that lower the risk. Ultimately, however, most heart attacks are going to be handled as emergencies, at least with what we can do now. (I realize that's not an exact parallel--birth is obviously a discrete event at which some of these issues can manifest and we know when we can look for certain things, as opposed to the much looser timelines for a heart attack. Still, I think the basic issue is similar.)
Best wishes, Ericka
Cheryl - 19 Aug 2007 10:11 GMT > I think this is an important sort of example. It's a > wonderful thing that this was detected prenatally; however, it [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > arguing for that in your post). We have to know more to > make that decision. It's a difficult call. I can tell you the main difference in outcome for me personally is that he would have been birthed at a different hospital and ended up being transferred across to the children's hospital while I was left behind. I believe the standard protocol would have called for him to be put on prostaglandins to ensure his ductus arteriosis remained patent and placed in a humidicrib. Other than that almost everything would have remained the same but done a few hours later. I don't think for suburban hospitals that prenatal diagnosis would make too much difference but this is of course a completely different story for rural or semi-urban hospitals. There have been problems within in Australia at the moment with babies being born by the roadside when they have been sent from one country town to another due to lack of paediatricians in some country hospitals, if one of those babies was an undiagnosed high risk patient the chance of the baby dying is much higher.
As for the detection rate, well Alath has already said that cardiac issues are not easily detected until after 24 weeks and this is what my son's cardiologist said as well. The ultrasound clinic where I had my structural ultrasound with Thud had a sign placed later that estimated only 60% of cardiac anomalies were picked up at 18-20 weeks. I guess really the idea of having your structural ultrasound during a period when the baby's heart and arteries are too small to visualise accurately is the issue here, there are obviously good reasons for having it at 18-20 weeks but I believe they have more to do with termination laws rather than best practice.
Cheryl
alath - 19 Aug 2007 13:42 GMT > reasons for having it at 18-20 weeks but I believe they have more to > do with termination laws rather than best practice. This is a very important point that I was considering bringing up earlier. It plays in to the timing of ultrasound exams. 18-20 weeks is not really the optimal time to scan, except that it allows enough time for a genetic amnio and a termination before 24 weeks.
Elsewhere in this thread folks have brought up the issue of losses related to genetic amnio. These procedure related loss rates are much lower later in pregnancy. Therefore, if people are interested in genetic diagnosis for reasons other than termination, they can wait until the third trimester and get the same information with a much lower risk of procedure related loss. This may alter the risk/benefit ratio for some folks.
Ericka Kammerer - 19 Aug 2007 15:22 GMT >> reasons for having it at 18-20 weeks but I believe they have more to >> do with termination laws rather than best practice. [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > lower risk of procedure related loss. This may alter the risk/benefit > ratio for some folks. Absolutely. It always seems a little odd that information like this doesn't seem to get out all that much. I always feel like people are presented with such simplistic options, when there are really lots of alternatives depending on what your personal goals are.
Best wishes, Ericka
alath - 20 Aug 2007 19:41 GMT > Absolutely. It always seems a little odd that > information like this doesn't seem to get out all that > much. I always feel like people are presented with such > simplistic options, when there are really lots of alternatives > depending on what your personal goals are. The reason for this is that it is literally mind-boggling to try to invent all your care paradigms from scratch every time a different patient walks in to the room. To some extent one has to have a simplified decision algorithm, because if you are contantly thinking about every possible option at every step of the way, you will wind up being transferred from working on the OB unit to inpatient on the psych unit. The trick lies in recognizing when a situation requires starting with a clean sheet of paper, and when a situation fits well within a practice pattern. Another trick lies in recognizing when a practice pattern doesn't fit anyone very well, and needs to be changed.
Ericka Kammerer - 20 Aug 2007 20:40 GMT >> Absolutely. It always seems a little odd that >> information like this doesn't seem to get out all that [quoted text clipped - 12 lines] > within a practice pattern. Another trick lies in recognizing when a > practice pattern doesn't fit anyone very well, and needs to be changed. Exactly. But I think there is a not infrequent tendency to sell patients short and assume that they're fine with "the usual" just because they don't know enough to ask all the right questions. And, you must admit, that it is not in the busy caregiver's interest to open that can of worms. I don't think that this is all that difficult to deal with. All you need is a handout that explains the general recommendation and the assumptions underlying it. For those who don't really care, it won't change anything. If it's true that "the usual" really does capture the most common preferences, then it won't change things for most patients anyway. But, for those who have a different set of assumptions, it does at least point out the possibility that there are different choices that can be explored.
Best wishes, Ericka
Anne Rogers - 19 Aug 2007 21:33 GMT > This is a very important point that I was considering bringing up > earlier. It plays in to the timing of ultrasound exams. 18-20 weeks is [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > lower risk of procedure related loss. This may alter the risk/benefit > ratio for some folks. In the UK, termination is allowed beyond 24 weeks if a "good" reason is given, there was outrage not long ago when it came to light that there had been at least one instance of cleft lip being the reason. However scanning is still done at 20ish weeks. I don't have references to hand, but it seems it is perceived that outcomes for the mother are better if termination occurs before 24 weeks, but I can't find any evidence for it, but I have seen some research suggesting mothers who carry to term do better than those who don't, but the problem is, even fatal anomolies have vastly varying life spans and it doesn't deal with non fatal anomolies that some wish to terminate for. My understanding is that in the US it's much less common to inject the heart to stop it beating before delivery, so that brings up another issue with later termination, but even so it does seem to come down to perceived rather than proved benefits.
Cheers Anne
Sarah Vaughan - 17 Aug 2007 23:11 GMT > 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic > anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > with a lethal fetal anomaly, I would much prefer to spend my 20 > minutes or 6 hours of life in my parents' arms. Been thinking about this one. Can a nuchal translucency test actually *diagnose* a lethal fetal anomaly (as opposed to picking out a subgroup of babies who are more likely to have one?) What's the specificity?
All the best,
Sarah
 Signature http://www.goodenoughmummy.typepad.com
"That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be" - P. C. Hodgell
sinister - 19 Aug 2007 03:40 GMT >> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic >> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > *diagnose* a lethal fetal anomaly (as opposed to picking out a subgroup of > babies who are more likely to have one?) What's the specificity? alath said the specificity is in the high 90s. _However_, as I pointed out in a reply, there's another number one should look at, the positive predictive value, which is the chance that a positive test is a true positive.
The PPP for this test, as far as I can tell by a brief skim on the internet, is something like 20%. (I think that's the PPP for the combined test.) Which would mean if the test is positive, the chance that your baby is __healthy__ is 80%. Which is I think a very good reason not to get the test if you're not going to abort anyway---if the test is positive, a lot of worry could be generated.
> All the best, > > Sarah Ericka Kammerer - 19 Aug 2007 04:08 GMT >>> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic >>> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition [quoted text clipped - 21 lines] > if you're not going to abort anyway---if the test is positive, a lot of > worry could be generated. Well, that depends on whether you're willing to have the amnio to find out for sure. If you're willing to have the amnio, the worry is for a shorter period of time. Or, if you have a detailed ultrasound, that may not give you an definite answer, but may make you more confident that there isn't a problem that would require immediate high tech intervention at birth. For some, that lessens the worry, but not for others. And, of course, some will worry themselves sick without doing the test in the first place. Still, I think the worry issue is a valid one. Not only do things like this change the experience of pregnancy for individuals who make the decision one way or another, but the "culture of testing" changes the experience for everyone, regardless of individual decisions.
Best wishes, Ericka
Sarah Vaughan - 19 Aug 2007 09:42 GMT (Answering two posts at once for convenience)
>>>> 2) perinatal hospice - Down syndrome is not the only karotypic >>>> anomaly. If the baby has a lethal fetal anomaly (a condition [quoted text clipped - 15 lines] >> positive predictive value, which is the chance that a positive test is >> a true positive. Excellent point. PPV is probably what I meant (I do know the differences between all these values, but it always makes my brain explode trying to figure out which one I need in practice).
However, what I was getting at is this: If I've understood correctly, what the nuchal translucency test actually picks out is not so much specific syndromes as aneuploidy generally. So, surely a positive test could mean either a probably lethal anomaly or Down's? I just did a quick google & found a study showing that approximately half of the fetuses testing strongly positive in one study had Down's, and the rest had a mixture of Trisomy 18, Trisomy 13, and Turner's. The prognosis for all of these is so different that there is no way I would want to withdraw lifesaving treatment from a newborn of mine purely on the basis that it (probably) had *one* of those. I'd want to know which one.
[...]
> Well, that depends on whether you're willing to have > the amnio to find out for sure. Which is exactly what I was thinking. This means that parents-to-be thinking about getting these tests need to think not just "Would I want to abort if the test was positive?" but "Would I want an amnio if the test showed I was at high risk?"
Based on the numbers I've seen, I really doubt if I would, even if a nuchal screening test did show high risk. The chances of finding an anomaly that would make me decide it wasn't even worth trying aggressive treatment seem too high for me to feel that I'd want to take the risk of miscarriage that comes with the test.
One interesting thought that comes to my mind - I wonder how feasible it would be, in such a situation, to do an amnio much closer to term, purely from the POV of making decisions about perinatal hospice if need be?
All the best,
Sarah
 Signature http://www.goodenoughmummy.typepad.com
"That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be" - P. C. Hodgell
betsy - 19 Aug 2007 15:02 GMT > (Answering two posts at once for convenience) > [quoted text clipped - 32 lines] > withdraw lifesaving treatment from a newborn of mine purely on the basis > that it (probably) had *one* of those. I'd want to know which one. My test results separate out the Down Syndrome risk from the Trisomy 18/13 risk. In my case, I was given a 1/43 risk for Down Syndrome but only a 1/1801 risk for Trisomy 18/13. The Down Syndrome part of the result is considered positive, but the Trisomy 18/13 is not.
With this information, I don't really need to be concerned about a lethal anomaly, but may want to know more so I can decide whether a local hospital or home birth would be safe for my baby. If I had received a much more strongly positive result for Down Syndrome, I would have choosen a high resolution ultrasound. Now, I am still wavering.
--Betsy
Anne Rogers - 19 Aug 2007 21:45 GMT > One interesting thought that comes to my mind - I wonder how feasible it > would be, in such a situation, to do an amnio much closer to term, > purely from the POV of making decisions about perinatal hospice if need be? I think it's hard because later amnios whilst having a lower risk of harm, may well cause premature birth, rather than still birth, and unpleasant though miscarriage is, it's probably perceived as better than premature birth. Which would then mean pushing the alternative amnio date back to 37 weeks, which is a long time to wait, potentially meaning large numbers of women are planning for the worst only to get a last minute reprieve and stress does affect pregnancy outcomes. It's still probably a reasonable thing for a small number of people, but not something that doctors are going to be shouting about being a possibility. There is also the issue of how long it takes to get results, which may start to push the date earlier. Plus, how to premature birth rates compare, given the higher risk of still birth in the fatal trisomies, I suspect it's higher than the general population, so a number planning a late test won't make it to that date. I suspect it's one of those things where it may well have value for some individuals, but across a population is poor - though that shouldn't mean that an individual shouldn't be able to choose it, on the basis it seems like there is a high chance they are one of the ones it would be a useful thing for.
Cheers Anne
Sarah Vaughan - 19 Aug 2007 23:24 GMT (Re: late amnios)
> I suspect > it's one of those things where it may well have value for some > individuals, but across a population is poor - though that shouldn't > mean that an individual shouldn't be able to choose it, on the basis it > seems like there is a high chance they are one of the ones it would be a > useful thing for. Yes, that's about what I was thinking - not so much that it would be a good alternative on a widespread basis, but that perhaps this is something that medical staff should be willing to consider as an option that may suit some people.
All the best,
Sarah
 Signature http://www.goodenoughmummy.typepad.com
"That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be" - P. C. Hodgell
Anne Rogers - 20 Aug 2007 05:26 GMT > Yes, that's about what I was thinking - not so much that it would be a > good alternative on a widespread basis, but that perhaps this is > something that medical staff should be willing to consider as an option > that may suit some people. It's so hard, because it seems like the medical profession have a fixed idea of these things should be terminated for and then another group of things that you want to know beforehand to plan for, so there isn't all that much support or even desire to figure out what a good route might be for the large numbers of people that fall outside of that model. For me, when I had my two, I had youth on my side and was not particularly anxious about anything (it does seem to me that age brings more anxiety about these things, but I could be completely wrong on that one), so for me, it was better to avoid all testing simply to avoid any pressure and taking that step wasn't a worry to me. But now, I've lived a few more years, I've seen more bad stuff happen, I think there would be a raised level of anxiety, though it still probably isn't high compared to what some people seem to be like (though my external assessment could be wrong) and things don't seem quite so clear cut anymore - I could well see myself being someone where late amnio could be helpful, if, and that's a big if, I chose to go for any of the earlier diagnostic tests.
Cheers Anne
sinister - 28 Aug 2007 15:39 GMT <snip>
>>> alath said the specificity is in the high 90s. _However_, as I pointed >>> out in a reply, there's another number one should look at, the positive [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > between all these values, but it always makes my brain explode trying to > figure out which one I need in practice). Yeah, I can never remember that stuff; too many details. That's what Google is for. Much more important than details is the understanding that "specificity as precisely defined isn't the whole story."
> However, what I was getting at is this: If I've understood correctly, what > the nuchal translucency test actually picks out is not so much specific > syndromes as aneuploidy generally. So, surely a positive test could mean > either a probably lethal anomaly or Down's? I just did a I think that's right.
I'm not sure but I still think that the chance that a positive test still leaves more than 50/50 the baby has no chromosomal problems at all. Maybe still around "80% things are actually OK." Of course one can then do amnio later but as we know that has miscarriage risk.
<snip>
Warmest regards,
S
Paula J - 15 Aug 2007 19:03 GMT > Since we've made the decision that we won't abort for genetic disorders, is > there any reason to have this test? (We can't think of any.) The other posters who responded gave you great information.
I'm currently expecting #4 (5th pregnancy) and this is the first time I've had any screening tests performed. One of my children has cerebral palsy, and I mainly wanted to know whether we had an increased risk of having another child with special needs, just to prepare mentally for more years of specialists and therapy. We would not terminate either. My risk came back very low, and we won't have any further testing (although I'll be having amnio to check for lung maturity if I make it to 36 weeks).
In my previous pregnancies, I've declined all screening tests other than the standard ultrasounds (of which I have a lot because my pregnancies are quite high risk and followed closely by a maternal-fetal specialist). Anyway, that was my reasoning for opting to have the tests done this time.
Congratulations and best of luck!
Paula 20w2d w/ #4 Mom to Olivia & Cassie, born 4/8/03 @ 26 weeks and Noah, born 6/1/05 @ 35 weeks
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